Best Italia Economy Portal: Istat, GDP more than expected: + 0.3% in the first quarter, the highest growth since …

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Istat, GDP more than expected: + 0.3% in the first quarter, the highest growth since … – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published May 13, 2015 at 10:12.
The last change is the 13 May 2015 at 11:16.

Italy out of recession. In the first quarter of 2015, GDP began to grow, with an increase of 0.3% compared to the last quarter of 2014. This was announced by ISTAT in the preliminary estimates, on an annual basis instead of calculating a change anything. The results are higher than analysts’ expectations (+ 0.2%). The estimated growth is the highest since the beginning of 2011. The change gained in GDP for 2015 (ie one that would be obtained in the presence of a short-term change anything in the remaining quarters of the year) is 0.2%.

“It is a clear turnaround, ‘according to ISTAT, although according to experts must follow one another two quarters of growth to declare the end of the recession.

Eurostat: Eurozone GDP + 0.4%. Germany + 0.3%, France 0.6%
GDP up 0.4% in the first quarter of 2015 in the Eurozone, accelerating after + 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2014, + 0.2% and + 0.1% in the third of the second quarter. Italy’s performance is equal to that of Germany (+ 0.3%), growing less than expected. But do best France (+ 0.6%) and Spain (+ 0.9%). Down for the second consecutive quarter the GDP in Greece (-0.2% after -0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2014). Growth of 0.4% in the first quarter of this year throughout the EU-28, while according to Eurostat in the US growth was + 0.1% and 0.3% in the UK (but in terms trend, year on year, there was an increase of 3.0% in the US and 2.4% in the UK).

GDP, in the first quarter growth higher by 4 years
The growth of GDP in the first quarter of the year amounted to + 0.3%, it is the highest since the beginning of 2011. This derives from the tables published by Istat. To find a more significant fact must go back to the first quarter of four years ago, when the GDP grew by 0.4%. To find the previous positive economic change in GDP must go back to the third quarter of 2013 (+ 0.1%). From the next, the Italian economy and ‘remained the pole (in the Fourth Quarter. 2013 and Fourth Quarter. 2014) or marked a negative growth (-0.2% in the first and second trim. 2014 and -0, 1% in the Third Quarter. 2014). On-year variation in GDP is nothing. In this case it is the first negative result after 13 quarters with the minus sign.

Well industry and agriculture, stable services
The data released today by ‘ Istat is seasonally adjusted and corrected for calendar effects. The first quarter of 2015 has indeed had one working day less than the previous quarter and the same number of working days compared to the first quarter of 2014. The economic growth, noted the Institute of Statistics, is the synthesis of an increase in the value added in the sectors of agriculture and industry and a substantial stability in services. On the demand side, the Istat recorded a positive contribution to the national component (gross inventories) increased the contribution negative net foreign demand,

The outlook Istat: +0.7 % in 2015 and + 1.2% in 2016
In the report on the prospects for the Italian economy in 2015 to 2017, published on May 7, Istat has planned for 2015 increased product Italian GDP will increase by 0.7% in real terms (a growth rate of GDP for the current year revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points compared to the situation forecast widespread in November 2014). Istat estimated then a growth of 1.2% in 2016.

Estimates of the Def
Estimates, the Istat, slightly cautious for the ‘ Next year those contained in Def, providing a GDP growth of 0.7% this year, but by 1.4% in 2016. The Statistical Institute certifies however the end of the recession and a recovery until 2017 (+ 1.3%) thanks to a recovery in disposable income, a fall in unemployment and an increase in domestic demand likely to sustain consumption and GDP.