MILAN – Hours 14:10. Day report cards for the Italian economy, which collects the response (preliminary) Istat output from the recession (+ 0.3% GDP in the first quarter) and, despite the recommendations of Brussels to continue the path of reform, He gets the green light from the European Commission to request flexibility. On the front of the Institute of Statistics there is the first step towards the 0.7% growth that the government has put in writing in Def, shared by Istat that May 7 was expressed in line with the forecasts of Palazzo Chigi.
From Brussels, however, comes the green light to the flexibility on which the government has based the Document of economy and finance, which remains conditional upon resolution of the node pensions. The government has chosen to correct the structural deficit of 0.4 percent of GDP in less than expected European (0.1 instead of 0.5), resulting in a de facto space for more than 6 billion euro which serves to defuse safeguard clauses (increase in excise duties and VAT) without subtracting resources to projects for expansion. The technicians of the Treasury, however, must find a way to repay pensioners to the consultation have been unfairly freeze the indexation of the allowances to the cost of living, for this year without breaking the ceiling of 3% in the ratio of deficit to GDP ( the government currently estimates to 2.6% and said he did not want to move).
The markets are oriented upward betting on data recovery, while digesting the thick series of macroeconomic data coming in and under the thrust of oil recovery, which should benefit the second consecutive weekly decline of US stocks. Milan is strengthened after the data Istat with a + 1.2%, Paris adds 1.2%, while Frankfurt of salt 0 , 6% and London 0.4%. Known as an analysis of Bloomberg , the purchase program bonds the ECB has strengthened the correlation between the movements of the stock and bond markets: the sharp reduction in yields on sovereign bonds earlier this year has paid a gallop markets, that the second half came to a halt. If you add to this a phase of stabilization, if not appreciation, the euro, they understand the profit-taking that characterized the last days of the EU: up to April peak, the Euro Stoxx 50 has reached a rally 22% in the year and an estimate of 16.5 times the estimated earnings of its members. Now he’s back to 15.5 times.
Among the individual stocks of the Milan Stock suffers Mediaset too slow on the recovery of the advertising market, taking the popular as the Bank and BPER after quarterly. In the spotlight Moncler, covered purchases after quarterly accounts. L ‘ € stabilizes the area 1,121 to the dollar, a level last night at the close of Wall Street. And ‘stable values of yesterday even the spread between BTP and Bund which marks 113 points. The ten-year Italian bond yield was down 1.75%. The Treasure has placed all 7 billion euro of BTPs 3, 7, 15 and 30 years, but with rising rates. The average yield on the three-year rose to 0.32% from 0.23% in April, one of the seven years to ’1.31% from 0.89% a month ago, that of 15 years at 2.32% from 1.64% in April and that of 30 years at 2.92% from 1.86% in March. Chiara Manenti welcomes the progress of the auction: “There have been tensions despite the combination rod Bunds”. The expert Intesa Sanpaolo said that “with today’s auction the MEF has placed 49% of the offer gross scheduled for 2015 and that in 2015,” Italy has placed the nominal BTP to a weighted average return for the amount issued amounted to 1.03%, down sharply from the 2.15% average of 2014 “.
As mentioned, the number of published data is substantial. In addition to Italy, also the other major economies and the entire Eurozone are the test of GDP: disappoint the Germany , surprising the France and overall speeds up the single currency area. The German GDP grew in the first quarter of 2015 by 0.3% from the previous quarter and compared to the + 0.5% expected by the panel of economists of Bloomberg , the French has rebounded 0.7% on the previous quarter, when growth was 0.2%, beating expectations for a more modest + 0.4%. The Eurozone marked a growth of 0.4%, above the + 0.3% in March. On an annual basis growth was 0.6% compared to + 0.1% at the end 2014. We return to Berlin to record the decline in wholesale sales in April (-0.4% monthly and -0 , 9%) and the stall inflation, which was found to stops on month and in the recovery of 0.5% on year. However, this is better than expected results, which indicated a decrease of 0.1% on the month and an increase, lower, by 0.4% on year. Also in April, but again in France inflation rose 0.1% on month and on year, in line with expectations. Instead prices have fallen again in Spain : -0.6% annually in April. In Italy, Istat confirmed the exit from deflation. Good data on unemployment in the UK : in April the jobless rate to 5.5%, lowest since 2008.
Meanwhile, the ‘ OECD detect the new drop in unemployment: in March, according to data of the organization, the rate fell by 0.1 percentage points from 7% to 6.9 percent. In February, it was noted by a slight decline from 7.1% to 7 percent. Since January 2013 there has been a cumulative decline of 1.2 percentage points. In absolute numbers, in March there are 42.4 million unemployed in the OECD, 6.6 million less than in January 2013.
Even the day of the Eastern markets has been driven by macroeconomic data. In April, the Chinese industrial production was up 5.9% on year, slightly below analysts’ expectations; retail sales were up 10% on year in April, with slight slowdown compared to March (10.2%) and slightly below analysts’ expectations. Japan posted a monthly surplus at the highest levels since March 2008, to 2.7953 trillion yen (20.7 billion euro) against 130 billion yen (less than one billion euro) a year earlier. The Nikkei index of Tokyo Stock Exchange closed so the session rising by 0.7% to 19,764 points, while the lists of Shanghai and Hong Kong prices declined fractional .
Closing down, last night, for the stock market Wall Street , with the Dow Jones at 18,068 points (-0.20%) and the Nasdaq at 4,976 points (-0.35%). In the US fell by 3.5% requests for new loans. As mentioned, the prices of oil are on the rise in the market after hours in New York with contracts on WTI crude oil that are traded at $ 61.35 per barrel (60.73 last night). Brent gained 54 cents to $ 67.4. To affect the prices the latest demand forecasts for growth in the current year. L ‘ Gold remains below the threshold of $ 1,200 in the Asian markets. Bullion for immediate delivery was trading at $ 1,192 an ounce, down from 1,193 the day before.
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