Telecom is still in the sweep – Milano Finanza

Continue to rise at Piazza Affari Telecom Italia (+1,89% to 0,8075 euro at the time with over 82 million pieces exchanged) even if yesterday, the chairman, Giuseppe Recchi, he reiterated that the company is no stranger to climbing Vivendi Mediaset (-0,90% to 3,53 euros), and in general to the whole affair that binds the two groups. Yesterday’s bench held the items according to which the company of the Berlusconi family Fininvest, to be able to purchase a 10% share of Telecom Italia, and the challenge Vivendi in whose hands is the 24,68% of the giant tlc.

An operation has already failed it in the bud from the Nra: “these operations is to concentrate the control of the two companies may be prohibited,” said the telecommunications Authority. In essence, as explained by the analysts of Equita, would be to prevent a merger between TI and Mediaset , but also joint control, at the head of Vivendi at the same time YOU and Mediaset , may be subject to the impediment of the regulator. “The statements of the Nra, seem to confirm our opinion: we do not consider feasible any vertical integration in this moment, even if theoretically it could be a collaboration stronger between Mediaset and Telecom Italia “, comment on this morning, analysts at Mediobanca Securities.

Also for analysts of Icbpi clarification of the Nra should contribute to dampen the expectations of a public purchase offer by Vivendi Mediaset . “The real risk for Fininvest, is represented by the possibility that the French company may be, reaching just below the threshold of the opa of the 30%, also with the support of external partners, with a participation sufficient to exercise a blocking minority in the extraordinary general meeting of shareholders,” indicate Icbpi (rating and target price under review on Mediaset ).

And then the “Vivendi would have had to exit from Telecom Italia, before taking on a significant role as a controlling shareholder of Mediaset , an option that we believe to be unlikely, unless it has reached an agreement with Fininvest, something that so far does not seem to be on paper”, add the experts of Mediobanca . “We reiterate our rating of outperform on Telecom Italia’s with a target price at 1.23 euros, while yesterday, we lowered the rating on Mediaset to neutral, while raising the target without a 4,09 euro 3,96 euro”.

Vivendi must watch their backs. In fact, as pointed out by Credit Suisse, following a change of the Italian legislation in 2012, with a participation of approximately 25% is not enough to control easily, YOU as in the period 2000-2012 when the Telco had a 25% of the group. “The control of Vivendi on the board of directors of TI is not at all assured. And the winner in an assembly of truly controversial depends on which list will be more interesting in the eyes of the financial investors of the minority. This increases incentives to propose a strategy that maximizes the value of the shares to YOU in the short term”, say analysts at Credit Suisse.

In any case, “Vivendi starts with a significant advantage both for its share of approximately 25% in Telecom Italia’s both for the reputation of Bolloré as a creator of value. In the same way Berlusconi could try to get the support of the Italian government at a time when the democrats and the M5s are head-to-head in the polls”, explain the analysts of Credit Suisse on the title WILL keep the rating neutral and the target price to 0,90 euro.

In fact, on the table there is also the possibility that the government, in an attempt to contain the action of the giant media French, can reconsider the hypothesis to unpick the network of Telecom Italy . In reality, the risk that the issue of the separation of the network come back at the moment is quite content. Any measure, in fact, should be approved by the european authorities and, what is more, in the last few months, Enel Open Fiber, and Metroweb are challenging the monopoly of Telecom Italia, on the network.

“Any scale of Telecom Italia, , perhaps with the spin-off of the network, we find them potentially inappropriate for shareholders, including Vivendi : better a Telecom Italia without an access network in order to have her with Mediaset ?”, you ask with an ironic tone to the analysts of Equita (buy and target price to 1.25 euros on YOU and the hold and target price to 3.6 euros on Mediaset ).

Separately, the group Tim is reportedly preparing to outsource the activities of Tim Vision in a company, with a decision of the board of directors scheduled for today. According to analysts, in case of a demerger, there would be no impact on the evaluation of the group, even if the operation could serve to give greater visibility to an asset of increasing strategic importance. In addition, Tim Vision may be a vehicle useful for developing future alliances on the content.