Maneuver, Def and debt: the obstacles on the road and Began – The Republic

(agf) of Course nobody would want to be in the shoes of the minister of Economy Pier Carlo Padoan forced to face a veritable obstacle course for a couple of months, until 10 April. It is necessary to say that the situation, with the beginning of the year was pretty bad: the rating agency the canadian on the 13th of January took away the only “A” remained in Italy, on the 17th of January, the Imf cut the growth forecast for our country for this year to 0.7 percent (0.2 in less compared to October and less than the government estimates, that still rely on the 1 per cent), the same day came the letter from Brussels that there must be a manoeuvre-bis ” to sconghiurare the infringement procedure. At the end, after long negotiations and a bit of a big voice, after two letters and a speech at the Senate, Italy has explained that it will make a consolidation of the public accounts of 3.4 billion. Brussels should believe it and avoid the decisive step: a dreaded procedure on the debt.

Now, it is time to make the manoeuvre that could get there, according to the decree, between February and march, however, prior to the Final scheduled for 10 April. The detail of the intervention from 3.4 billion is contained in the second letter to Brussels and Began on the 8th of February. It will be about 2.5 billion in overall revenue, as follows: 1.5 billion from the increase in excise duty on petrol (the minister of the Economy in the Senate, has assured that he will find a way not to become a burden on the road haulage), tobacco, and probably on stamps and other indirect. More than 1 billion to tackle tax evasion with the extension of the split payment, is the mechanism that allows the State to withhold the Vat of suppliers and other similar measures (this part will come after the Def). The package of cuts will be selective and will be equal to 680 million, with the usual cut at the expense of the ministries. In the match cuts are also the 170 million of the intervention on the tax credits you are working on them.

Not less onerous commitment for the Def, which must be delivered by April 10. In this case, the government will have to evaluate the macro environment very uncertain, the trends of interest rates and the exchange with the new scenario Trump, Brexit and the elections in France and Germany is rather complex. Limiting ourselves to Italy, the forecast of growth of Gdp of government, anchored at 1 for this year and 1.2 per cent for the next. The Bank of Italy spoke of an average rate of 1 percent in the three-year period.

of Course, count the choices on the debt that will fly, according to Commission estimates, the share 133,1 per cent of Gdp in 2018. You will need to rely on privatization: the government announces a second tranche of post and the starting Fs for 7-8 billion but it is said that the way domestic policy is the esplanade. But it is not finished, because next year you will need to defuse a new safeguard clause which provides for an increase of the Vat for about 20 billion.

Topics:

Policy

Final

the Debt

maneuver

Starring:

pier carlo padoan