How much should be written down in the stake held in the Atlas? This is the question that these days is circulating among banks, insurance companies and Italian foundations. The theme (see il Sole 24 ore on Sunday) is becoming increasingly topical, since we are now at the end of fiscal 2016.
The question stems from the fact that the investment by 2.5 billion carried out between may and June 2016 increases Popolare Vicenza and Veneto Banca has proved to be a flop, since the two banks, among others, 938 million injected in January 2017, the costs of the conciliation procedure and the potential for losses arising from the disposal of Npl – in need of a new massive recapitalization.
From here, in fact, the requirement of institutions to report to financial statements the exchange of perspectives.
To exit formally to found out it was yesterday Quaestio sgr, which (for the moment) has chosen not to move. The fund led by Alessandro Penati not svaluterà investments (over 99%) held in the capital of Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca.
A choice that has been made in spite of the independent assessor Deloitte has highlighted that have already been "burned" 850 million euro compared to 3.5 billion collected by the Atlas. The Sgr is based on the data of the financial statements of the two institutions at June 30 as “the net worth of banks was significantly higher than the value of the overall investment made” in giving an indication of the Nav (net asset value of the asset) at the end of the year, believed that “there are no adequate elements to deviate from the valuation at the historical cost of the investments,” explains a note. To the contrary, Deloitte, however, believes that the quota has already been devalued by 24% compared to the value of the investment occurred in the past few months.
But what will they do now the other traders? In accordance with Ias 39, must record a reduction to the fair value of the assets held in the portfolio of assets available for sale (Afs) in the face of a significant or prolonged loss in value. The "quantum" however, in the context of the rules of fair value defined by the Ifrs9 (for instruments with level 2 and especially 3) may incorporate components of more subjectivity. Each bank, according to the logic of evaluation "look through", i.e. focusing on the assessment of the individual assets of the fund, may, in short, to integrate the evaluation process with information and additional considerations, also keep contodegli areas of uncertainty pertaining to the specific instrument.
The eyes of the market have focused in particular on the moves of UniCredit, which on Monday has made knowing you have put into the account “a reduction, even significant, of the value of the investment” in Atlas, which amounts to about a billion. The more realistic scenario, in line with the launch of a policy of the budget to the sign of the discontinuity at the request of Jean-Pierre Mustier, is that the participation will be devalued by 60% to 80%. A heavy-duty cutting, but spiazzerebbe other traders and competitors. The general approach, albeit with nuances different, would be to proceed to a cut of 30-35%, or maybe something more. However, to create a small paradox is the fact that Deloitte – which has quantified the decline in 24%, it is also the auditor of the financial statements of the UniCredit. It is true that the valuation of Atlas is subject to “significant uncertainty” as indicated yesterday by the same Deloitte , deriving from the limited availability of objective data” and “methodology of calculation that is based only on the multiple of the stock market” on the banks “non-listed” that are “at the beginning of a profound process of restructuring and merger”.
this is why the reasoning in the bank in piazza Gae Aulenti – who, however, announced a billion extra write – downs- are still in progress. It remains to be seen if the analysis in the act, will give rise to write-downs a little more contained than expected. The final point will be put, however, on the 9th of February, the date of presentation of the accounts.
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