Closing with a bang for Italian industrial manufacturing, up to December 2016 is 6.6%. Fifth progress trend in a row (the more robust of the year, the top from August 2011) that raises significantly the overall growth for the year, the climb to 1.6%, half a point more than the previous year, up for Italy since 2010. Progress is also visible in the comparison month (+1.4%), and adjusted upwards by Istat compared to the raw data to take account of the calendar is less favorable.
Production, credit, investments: three reasons to regain optimism
The positive contribution of the industry to the value-added of the fourth quarter, at this point, much higher than the previous estimates of the analysts, making it virtually acquired a growth of the Gdp, in 2016 amounting to 0.9%, with the hypothesis (not remote) of a progress of 1% (the estimates of the Government are fixed at 0.8%).
The range of the estimate of 0.9%-1% is the hypothesis of Paolo Mameli, senior economist of Intesa Sanpaolo, which also identifies a statistical effect is positive for the first quarter of 2017 with the hypothesis of a growth of the Gdp in the period January-march amounted to 0.2%.
A reassuring data, the one of December to the output, mainly because of the choir, the result of a progress that embraces all the macro-sectors. A relevant contribution comes from the production of energy (+11,9%), side-by-side, however, from significant performance for intermediary and capital goods, both up over 7%. Sign likely than a resumption of the investment cycle, as indicated by the data of November and December, the credit to medium and long-term, strong growth.
From December 2014 to December 2016. Monthly index-seasonally adjusted and the change in % trend (data adjusted for calendar effects, the base 2010=100) (Source: Istat)
Among the areas monitored, the only one in the red is the textile while elsewhere there are only a the growth, in more than one case (means of transport, metallurgy, and computer) and also double-digit. In the average of the whole year, thanks to the progress of the car, the best portfolio is the one of the means of transport, growth of 5.1%.
The average annual industrial production grows therefore 1.6% and to find a better, we must return to the progress of more than six points in 2010, a rebound, however, almost physiological after the collapse close to the 20% achieved in the previous year. With the click of December, the index of output for the industrial sector in Italy port to share 96,5 (the 100 is 2010), to find a higher level, we must return to the far December of 2011, a leap back five years.
December 2016. Sectors of activity according to the percentage changes on the same month of the previous year (indexes corrected for calendar effects, the base 2010=100) total (Source: Istat)
A recovery that sees the fields move in a random order, with some funds already beyond the threshold of 2010. The situation that occurs for pharmaceuticals (113,7), machinery (104,4) and, above all, means of transport, arrived at the altitude of 113,4. Determining, as said, the recovery in production volumes of Fca in Italy, with an output of the motor vehicles arrived to share 136,6, almost double compared to the period of the most gloomy at the end of 2012-beginning of 2013.
© Reproduction reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment