Mario Draghi as the last bastion european in front of the leading populists increasingly felt very proud by the unexpected success of the referendum on Brexit (which will not happen before 2019 at the end of two years of negotiations that are set to be much less sharp), and the election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States (unlikely to be strongest with measures that would create divisions within as well as abroad, such as the ban on the entry of residents of seven muslim-majority countries).
the president of The Ecb has repeated yesterday in front of the european parliament of Brussels and the euro, "irrevocable", "keep us together" in times of more and more closures of national. A reaction that sociologists and economists try to justify it as an inevitable reaction on the part of public opinion more and more confused in the West, where for the first time in many decades, if not centuries, the new generation seems to have in front of you less prospects of those that have preceded it.
A reaction to the emergence of increasingly net the differences between countries, such as Germany, while noting that the european Union and the euro are still in the middle of the ford, then in a worse situation to deal with a full sudden of populism, but seem to be willing to go forward, and those, such as Italy and France, it always seems less willing to do it, and ready to throw it in the mischief, giving the blame of the crisis of the euro and the european Union itself, rather than to their own inability to change pitch.
The solution ventilated by the same Angela Merkel, "the union of two speeds", resumes the concepts of old, such as the need to obtain a full mobility of factors of production, freedom of trade in goods and services, freedom of capital movements, the gradual but not more procastinabile realignment of prices between the various countries, the full flexibility of the prices of all factors of production, so also of the wages (linked to the productivity).
The idea dui fund it would seem that going back to form a nucleus of the "strong" and cohesive, which can function as a "the united states of Europe" and not only as a large, bureaucratic condo with endless and little conclusive meeting between the 28 housemates riotous. A nucleus of which Greece, Italy, Spain or even France wouldn’t take part until they prove ready not only in words.
The united states in which you look at are those of America, or perhaps one should say were, until a short time ago, why now also there, the air is changed, in spite of the taxes which are the lowest in relation to Gdp of all the G-7 (a little over 25%, against 45% for Italy and France), despite a labour market that is more fluid and can not (in 2016, there were 62.6 million of assumptions in the face of 60.1 million of resignation or dismissal, with a positive balance of 2.5 million jobs by a workforce of 150 million people) where no one, on the contrary in Italy, has never even dreamed of the ‘ fixed".
"new" United States of America Donald Trump are not afraid of Germany, because among the points that the new U.s. president has said several times in campaign (and, so far, as promised, has maintained, not caring about the reactions and even of the consequences) there is the will to return to a form of mercantilism that will result in an attitude very aggressive vis-à-vis German exports (besides mexican or chinese) in America, the deregulation of the financial markets with the radical revision of the reform, the Dodd-Frank desired by Barack Obamae that scongelerà in the coming years, up to $ 100 billion that banks would have to hold as a reserve against the risks that may instead be distributed as dividends or reinvested in new acquisitions and investments, and the use of statements "effect" to drive the dollar up or down depending on the convenience of the moment.
Angela Merkel, who also prepares for an election campaign full of statements that will leave you speachless, and not the other to trim down Frauke Petry, the leader of Alternative für Deutschland, you have to do is offer a bank, Mario Draghi, which in change has already made it known that any Frexit, Grexit or Italexit that are not will be made at zero cost. The country to be released from the euro area will have to close the balances "Target2", i.e. the debt with the Eurosystem accumulated by each national central bank (which in the case of the Bank of Italy in December 2016, were equal to 356,6 billion), then it will be free to go his own way.
note that once they have repaid this debt, the country’s outgoing not enjoy more of the umbrella of the Ecb in regard to the yields and spreads of its government bonds, which therefore would come to be valued by the markets solely on the basis of reliability, perceived of the issuer, which would lead almost certainly to an increase in interest payable on the debt itself, with the assumption at that point even more remote of a sovereign default on the style of what has already happened for example, in Argentina (and in Gracia). For this reason, the words of the Dragons have been a reason of relief, albeit uncertain and temporary, with the yield on the Btp to 10 years down the 2,34% (from 2.39% at yesterday) and the spread against German Bund (the yield of which also has declined, from a 0.38 percent yesterday to 0.36% tonight) back below 2%, the 1.96%.
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