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This entry was posted on August 13, 2015 at 7:08.
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TOKYO – Third day of depreciation for the yuan, while in Asia are beginning to emerge signs of relative stabilization of the stock markets and currencies. China’s central bank set the central parity of the currency to 6.4010, 1.1% below the fixing of the previous day (6.3306), which in turn resulted lower than 1.6% Tuesday’s (-1.9% on Monday). After the signals of intervention at the end of trading yesterday – with sales of dollars from parts of state financial groups – the differential with the prevailing exchange trading onshore has greatly reduced (with a change around 6.43) and offshore market is limited to about 1% (with a change around 6.48).
The PBOC tries to reassure. According to rumors, in the Chinese government are authoritative characters that invoke an overall depreciation of around 10 percent. Even today, however, the People’s Bank of China has stressed in a statement to be in favor of a stable exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced, with a consistent level between onshore and offshore: the fundamental economic growth, the surplus trade, the strong fiscal position and large reserves estimate offer, it showed a “strong support” for the exchange rate. In a rare briefing, the Deputy Governor Yi Gang reiterated these concepts on the “no basis” for a persistent trend of depreciation. The PBoC said it will monitor any of abnormal cross-border currency flows and is preparing to open a currency market to foreign financial institutions qualified under the new system of fixed gear that will give prominence to market forces. The agency Fitch, meanwhile, stressed that the latest developments are obviously linked to “broader pressures on the economy” and on the other hand show that Beijing remains “committed” to market-oriented reforms.
In FDI growth. In the framework of reassurance to the markets also fits the data released today by the Ministry of Commerce of China, according to which foreign direct investment (FDI) increased in July 5.2% from a year earlier. In the first seven months of this year FDI are therefore expanding by 7.9% to 471.1 billion yuan, nearly 77 billion dollars. The fall in exports of 8.3% in July accused (since last Saturday) was negatively impressed and probably helped to direct the authorities to a devaluation that face regain competitiveness in the manufacturing sector.
Evidence of recovery in Asian stock markets. Meanwhile investors, encouraged by the final recovery on Wall Street last night after the flop of the European markets, appear to have reduced fears of strong market destabilization in the hope that Beijing brakes more devaluations. At the Tokyo Stock Exchange it fluctuated mostly in positive territory, ignoring the data worse than expected orders for industrial machinery (down 7.9% in June). The Shanghai Stock Exchange appears very volatile, including a positive start and a subsequent withdrawal, while Hong Kong appears stable. The dollar has lost some ‘strength also because investors have become less convinced that the Federal Reserve will start to raise their US interest rates as early as next September 17.
Seoul confirmation rates. Today, meanwhile, the Bank of Korea has confirmed the interest rates at a record low of 1.5% which had brought them last month in the wake of the economic slowdown caused by even a health crisis now apparently returned (that of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). But many analysts believe that the South Korean central bank will loosen its monetary policy even if the effect of the devaluation of the Chinese won (now enjoying a revival) were relatively stronger to have a negative impact on an already slowing exports.
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