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Italy will not restart the engine. Or better still moves at a speed so low as to be almost stops. Yesterday Istat, spreading the preliminary estimate of GDP, has determined that in the second quarter the economy grew by only a modest 0.2%. A value that does not put still safe on the executive ability to reach the set in the documents of the Treasury, and that is an increase of 0.7% at year end. Also weighing were definitely macroeconomic facts of the last days as the Greek crisis and the devaluation of China. But the difficulties of recovery were already evident in recent data macro. And if the president of Confindustria, Giorgio Squinzi sees an upturn that is not there, the Ministry of Economy with Pier Carlo Padoan reassures: “Structural reforms and economic policy will favor the acceleration.”
According to estimates of the Institute of Statistics the April-June quarter grew by 0.2% from + 0.3% in the previous quarter and 0.5% over the same period last year.
Given the economic situation, more or less in line with expectations, is the result of a decline in the value added of agriculture, an increase in services, and no change in industry (including construction). On the demand side, it fits the national component while weighing the foreign one. If growth were to remain unchanged over the next two quarters, we would close 2015 with a + 0.4%. If so, however, it would not hit the target put on paper by the government. Now in fact to close 2015 with a + 0.7%, in fact, need a real acceleration in the next two quarters that there will not be enough to stop a + 0.2% or + 0.3%, but will need at least one + 0.4% in each quarter.
The figure, however, does not seem to worry the Ministry of Economy. The result is “as expected” and the “financial planning of the government is based on reliable estimates,” say sources of the Treasury, which also emphasize that “the country can and must do better.” It expected result for the Confederation, but it gives a reading less rosy: “Unfortunately, it confirms that there is a real re-start,” says Squinzi, indicating that the real problem is “to create conditions favorable to the company.” Also criticized the Cgil: the data are good news but not enough to create jobs. For the leader of the UIL Carmelo Barbagallo data confirmed a growth too slow. And for consumers on like the country is not out of the crisis. The economic slowdown is indeed a surprise.
“We must create conditions favorable to the company, this is the real problem. In Italy, so long as we stuck to all the administrative and bureaucratic complications in addition with all the problems that we do not reform, will not budge, “adds Squinzi. Under the expected gross domestic product of Germany and France. The French economy sealed: in the second quarter, GDP remains unchanged compared to the previous quarter, after an encouraging + 0.7% in the first quarter. Economy Minister Michel Sapin maintains a + 1% its estimates on growth in 2015. Germany, however, recorded a growth of 0.4% in seasonally adjusted GDP in the same period. Analysts were expecting a + 0.5% after + 0.3% in the first quarter. On an annual basis, the economy grew by 1.6% after + 1.2% in the first quarter. The economy also slowed in the Eurozone (+ 0.3% against + 0.4% economic situation in the first quarter of this year).
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