We are now on the farce: with a release in the evening the Monte dei Paschi di Siena confirms to continue", the activities aimed at realization of the transaction communicated to the market last October 25, the", that is to say, the sale of more than 27 billion suffering andincrease of capital 5 billion that is necessary to cover the difference between the value at which those loans are recognised in the balance sheet and their actual selling price. The board of directors, which met in Milan on Sunday afternoon has officially announced the intention to reopen the terms of the offering of the conversion of the bond subordinated in action to in volve small investors (whose risk profile is incompatible with this operation), and "start a market book building ensuring the involvement of investors who had shown interest".
it Seems a joke in bad taste, in fact it is the usual Italian comedy, which in this case serves only to prepare the ground for the now imminent State. Not surprisingly, banks are already parading The banks of the consortium – read the release-of-Siena – have confirmed their willingness to support the operation of capital increase on the basis of best effort, coming so minus the previous agreement of pre-underwriting. The new agreement is currently under negotiation". Translated, this means that Jp Morgan, Mediobanca and the other institutes will not be any syndicate (that is, they do not take any subscription commitment of the inoptato) but will do their best to place the shares of the capital increase with investors. And the one who will not be able to place the will take the State, which already today, Mps is the first shareholder, with 4%.
With this way of proceeding to Siena think they can earn a few days to allow the new government to settle and they even try to touch the ground with the control authorities, in particular with the Consob, to verify the availability to enlarge the mesh and allow the bank to exert all the pressure possible to induce the bond retail (almost all of its current account holders) to accede to the conversion of the "voluntary" in actions in derogation of their risk profile. A request curious, even more so now that the confidence in the system is to a minimum and the control authorities are under indictment for not monitored on the banks and for not having prevented the sale of the retail shares and subordinated bonds of Popolare Etruria, Banca Marche, CariFerrara, CariChieti, the Popular Vicenza, Veneto Banca and of the same subordinated bonds additions to Siena. We w ill see what will decide the Consob, which, however, on the event MontePaschi is not shining for activism, while the continuous rumors in the Stock market trading ensure high profits to those who specula the title.
in the Meantime, it is worth asking if the offer just ended can still be considered valid after the decision of banks not to give effect to the contract of pre-underwriting (and therefore not to form a syndicate for the capital increase), a decision that radically changes the scenario, and the conditions on the basis of which it had been tender offer for the conversion of the bond. It is a response that is worth a billion, and it is pretty obvious that the bank and authority will do everything in order to consider acquired the result, but we can not exclude that some fund might have an interest to put it into question and open a dispute, especially if things turn to the worse.
However, in a few days will end the comedy, and – as you know for months – the State will be forced to intervene by shifting the focus on the problems that the government Renzi has not wanted to deal with. In the first place, it will pose the problem of how to refund bondholders cheated, the place that the their bond could be deleted or converted forcibly in action in spite of their risk profile. Today is not yet launched the long-awaited decree on arbitration with the bondholders of the Popular ” Etruria, Banca Marche, CariFerrara and CariChieti may be recognized as compensation in the shortest time and at low cost. Will be able the government Gentiloni to launch in a few days that a decree of the minister of the Treasury, Pier Carlo Padoan and the previous government have not been able to make in months of work?
this question, if it adds then another: with the nationalization will arrive in Siena, a new management, or to manage the bank will still be the man of Jp Morgan, Marco Morelli, and the new president-shareholder Alessandro Falciai? The only certainty at the moment is that the State will take over in place of the market in a plan – that was launched last July after the retention to stress test, and later revised at the end of October – that define hazardous is an understatement. The capital increase, in fact, is the premise to start the far more complex operations to dispose of non-performing loans of the institute, which will see the first row in the bottom Atlas and Jp Morgan in the role of the funder.
most Likely, the fees that these parties have negotiated with the MontePaschi will not be subject to re-negotiation and the public money injected into the bank will also pay these costs (in the case of Atlas, the 200 million immediately to the surrender of a warrant and a super-funding for the acquisition to fund a portion of the contracts of leasing in the head at the same bank). Given the premises, the State will take over without honours (but with all the charges) in a save that will manage from others the same that are currently a party in the case. And if something will go wrong – usually – pay for the Pants.
