Luca Spoldi
the Crisis of the Mps, the calm before the storm? All is quiet from Siena, at the end of a day that has seen the title give 2% closing at 20,06 € (doing slightly worse than the list price for Milan, which has lost a little more of a point waiting for the decisions of the Federal Reserve, that tonight should raise a quarter of a point the cost of money in the Usa, and to hear, from the subsequent statements of Janet Yellen if the outlook to 2017, the Us economy is allowed to predict further rises in official rates. The board of directors of the institute started late, at around 16.00 in the afternoon, and is still ongoing at the time this article is being written. Should be stopped this evening, to be resumed tomorrow, unless by Consob does not arrive already in these hours, the opinion on the request to reopen the offer for a voluntary exchange between bond, subordinated claims and actions before the constitutional referendum had collected accessions for a little over a billion euros, minimum objective that, however, now appears to be quite insufficient remaining wrapped in mystery, the real texture of the core of the ghostly "anchor investor" and not meaning the banks contacted for the underwriting syndicate to guarantee the inoptato an offer on the retail market.
At this point the roads to Siena, however, are marked and are substantially two: if the Consob will urge the bondholder private in order to convert (with a premium between 35% and 50% compared to current prices) their bonds into shares, the Mps re-open the offer, perhaps already during the course of the day tomorrow and could collect up to a couple of billion. Note that adherence to the totalitarian bid would rise to around 4.5 billion in the collection seeing the success of the recapitalisation, but the hypothesis seems to be unlikely. retail market.
If instead the Commission to contest as the great majority (90% according to the items that turn up from days in the bag, referring to an internal analysis at the bank) of the bondholder does not have a profile compatible with the equity investment, private placement, that the banks have agreed to lead in the coming days and that should be addressed to institutional investors around the world, and from which they could reach other 1-1,5 billion (if the Qatar Investment Authority and hedge funds Use, in the end of the game), it would still not be enough to avoid public intervention. retail market.
Since that is not possible in any case to assume aid to the state "tout court" (that gravassero that is entirely on the taxpayers), it proceeds to a "recapitalization prior" with the relative distribution of the burden, or "burden sharing" agreement, is on the shoulders of the private sector (shareholders and bondholders junior, which in this case would face a conversion by force at a discount, i.e. a reduction of the value of their securities) and on those of the Treasury, that verserebbe you say one or two billion seeing up its share, currently at 4%, up to a level close to 40%. retail market.
it Remains to be seen how it is possible that you have lost months (the “plan” that Marco Morelli is trying to bring forward is in essence the one presented by his predecessor, Fabrizio Viola, last July) prepare any "parachute" of an emergency? The feeling is that politics has prevailed, reasons why the economic rationality, so although already in July, the Eu Commission had appeared ready to accept a recapitalisation is preventive so long as its "burden sarin", the idea that tap private savers could have a negative impact on the outcome of the constitutional referendum (still failed) it was preferred to the government, the attempt to keep alive an operation that define the baroque is an understatement. retail market.
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