The possible intervention of the State as “guarantor” of a ripatrimonializzazione precautionary of Italian banks in crisis will certainly discuss. There will be those who contest the return of the public hand in the area of credit and those who instead say that the surgery was, and is, indispensable and rather late, as it is necessary to since 2011. In the meantime, entered into force new eu rules on bank bailouts, the stock of non-performing loans of the Italian banks has increased, and the attempts of the system to stem the crisis have only served to blot the emergencies. But it does not solve the problems of the seven or eight banks that were and remain in crisis.
Mps, solutions to the study
In the last year the majority of banks are healthy has contributed in various ways to saved games still unfinished: from the down payment of the future costs of the resolution fund to the establishment of the voluntary fund, up to the intervention in the bottom of the Atlas. Perhaps this is the moment that an investor of the patient as the State (as they did years ago, the United States, with an outcome that later proved positive both for the banks and for the american taxpayer), is faced with the task of recapitalisation of banks in crisis and free responsibly from this task, to avoid a possible future contagion, the majority of Italian banks healthy. By Intesa to UniCredit, by the large popular in the centre and north to the coffers of banks and private until you get to the Bcc, there is a credit system that is solid or that is able to solve their problems with a direct access to the market.
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these institutes, which have already allocated several billion for the various bailouts of the last few years, you can ask again to contribute to the protection of the banks in the crisis. Much better, also for the respect owed to their shareholders, Italian and international, that the banks are healthy devote themselves entirely to their efforts in the financing of the economy. And that the bailouts of the few institutions crumbling, protecting the savings as provided by the Constitution, we think the State. In this sense, the decree, ready-to-days, that should make available a credit line of 15 billion euros to give you a guarantee of last resort to capital increases of the banks that may have difficulties to find the resources on the market.
Banks in crisis, the 4 open cases
The main event is the evolution of the crisis to Mps that, waiting for the verdict “formal” of the Ecb on the assumption of a reference to the 20 January in the capital increase, it remains to grips with the alternative (from the melt by Monday) between continue with the complex attempt of private plan sponsored by JP Morgan, or to tack up the government guarantee to be implemented, according to the new european rules, through the mechanism of “burden-sharing”.
A mechanism that, although implemented with the most careful, will is also the mandatory conversion of the bonds subordinated shares (not to zero, as happened a year ago to Banca Etruria, Banca Marche, CariChieti, and Cariferrara) for both institutional investors and for savers retail. Second, on the basis of the agreements defined with the european Commission, will be granted refunds in cases of mis-selling (selling fraudulent). For large funds, however, no form of compensation if you do not, the prospect of a future revaluation of the shares of Mps in the next few years. In both cases, there will be protests. And we have to see how the market of bank bonds that the italians will react to the operation. Both on the banks that may be involved in the burden sharing, both on those “healthy” which at that point would be freed from the ballast system and might come to be the most attractive on the market.
Mps evaluates the increase of the flash and calls the Consob
node of the bottom of the Atlas, and of Veneto Banca and Vicenza
The other most obvious case which may be dedicated to the intervention of the State concerns the Popular Vicenza and Veneto Banca, the two subsidiary banks with more than 97% from the bottom of the Atlas (in turn compounded by the Italian financial system). For the two institutions that travel to the merger, outlined the new maxi-net provisions on non-performing loans and a consequent increase of the capital estimated at two billion. The intervention of the State to dilute the Atlas, which is already preparing to record a heavy loss. Alternatively, the intervention of the State in the Mps may free Atlas by the operation of Npl in Siena and hijack the resources fully to the revival of Veneto Banca and Popular Vicenza. The hypothesis certainly better for the two institutions that, in the case of burden-sharing, should penalize their subscribers retail bond subordinated, often coincident with the former sha reholders that have filed for maxi-causes damages to the two institutions.
The four good banks and the caisses unsafe
The credit limit that the State is considering to reserve to the recapitalization of banks in crisis may be extended to the four good banks emerged from the rescue last year. After several extensions granted by the Eu, the most recent expires at the end of the year, their sale is still very difficult. For Ubi Banca, which has an attempt at the examination of the Supervision of the Ecb, their acquisition could result in a capital increase of 500 million. Alternatively, it is possible that the four banks to launch a capital increase and that, in the absence of private investors (banks that are not listed) the State to take charge of the relaunch. As for the Savings banks of romagna, from time to hunt for capital after having affected the capital ratios minimum regulatory capital (and waiting for financial statements of additional cleaning of the receivables). If the intervention of the State there will be, then it will be inevi table mergers and combinations between the various institutions saved, with inevitable restructuring, before coming back to be attractive to private investors.
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