Italy returned to growth after three and a half years: + 0.1% in the first … – Il Sole 24 Ore

Italy returned to growth after three and a half years: + 0.1% in the first … – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published on February 27, 2015 at 17:47.
The last change is the February 27, 2015 at 18:21.

After 14 consecutive quarters without growth in the first quarter of 2015 Italy will return to grow: the change in GDP is expected at + 0.1%. He says Istat, which today released its monthly note on economic trends.

The positive signs
“The positive signals on the Italian economy are strengthened,” notes the National Institute of Statistics. The composite indicator forerunner of the economy “has recorded an increase in December for the second month in a row.” For the first quarter of 2015 “is expected to return to GDP growth.” The improvement of the views of consumers and businesses registered in February, notes the Istat, “is accompanied by the increase in industrial production in December and that of services revenue in the fourth quarter of 2014″. The change in the economic real GDP expected in the first quarter “is + 0.1%, with a confidence interval of between -0.1% and + 0.3%. This result is the synthesis of the still negative contribution of domestic demand (gross inventories) and the strong contribution of net exports. ” The last increase dates back to the second quarter of 2011.

The residual difficulties, work in head
If the light back to dawn, shadows remain. Since the labor market – the statement said – “does not show clear signs of a turnaround than observed in recent months.” The rate of vacancies in industry and services remained stable in the fourth quarter of 2014 to 0.5%. A stationary that lasts from the last quarter of 2013 and that “reflects the stagnation that is observed on the demand side of labor.” In February, the expectations of employment made by entrepreneurs for the next three months continue to vary according to the sectors: growth in manufacturing, stable in services, a deterioration in construction.

Price: Deflation attenuates
In the beginning of this year, underlines the Istat, you are close to materializing on the consumer direct and indirect effects of the sharp declines of the barrel. The index of consumer prices for the community fell by 0.6% year on year in January and 0.2% in February, according to preliminary estimates. The reduction of production costs, a result of the cut in energy prices, helped to keep core inflation (+ 0.5% in February).

Growing consumer confidence
In the third quarter of 2014 household spending has increased slightly (+ 0.1% change in the economic situation), that trend should carry on. In February there was a marked improvement in the confidence of consumers, especially in judgments related to the economic situation.

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