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We should be there. The recovery is around the corner. How many times have we heard this kind of ads that later proved false. But this time the end of the tunnel of the crisis would be close. ISTAT estimated that in the first quarter of this year, GDP should return to growth with a + 0.1%. It is a minimal but significant rise of a change of trend.
If these predictions are confirmed, it would break a fall that has lasted three years. Since the second quarter of 2011 Italy recorded a + 0.2% there were only negative signs interrupted by short periods of stagnation. Istat, however, urges caution. There remains a climate of uncertainty for the labor market that shows no clear signs of a turnaround than in previous months. The rate of vacancies in the fields of industry and services has remained stable in the fourth quarter of around 0.5%.
Istat noted, among the elements that bode well, the fact that “the climate of Italian business confidence rose further in February (+7 points compared to December ), thanks to significant increases in market services, and more moderate increases in the manufacturing sector and in retail. The improvement of the views of consumers and businesses registered alongside the increase in industrial production in December and that of services revenue in the fourth quarter of 2014. In the first three quarters of a manufacturing two has increased its total turnover of at least 1% over the same period of 2013. The improvement was evident both compared to the annual average of 2010-2013 (when one in two had recorded increases in sales of 0.2% per year) and compared to 2013 (-2.2% per year on the 2012). Attenuates deflation. In February, prices return to grow by 0.3%.
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