ROME – It looks like a dialogue of the deaf duel between Athens and Berlin, between proposals ambiguous word games but also important openings by Greece, and a cautious position and attached to the shape of Germany, which fears a “Trojan Horse “: a ploy to gain time. In reality we all feel very well. And the duel in place is not only a stage, high-voltage, played the negotiations on the future of the euro that could end positively Eurogroup tomorrow, or prolonged even if the ECB will stand, as he has done so far, to the game by saving banks from collapse. Or get out of hand, handing Greece a financial collapse that could take a few days.
The first element is that Brussels has convened a Eurogroup for tomorrow. It means that Europe believes, after the letter received from the Minister of Finance greek Yanis Varoufakis, that there is reason to reopen formal talks between the finance ministers of the Eurozone. It was not that what the deal is skipped Monday. For the European Commission, the Greek letter is “a positive sign that paves the way for a reasonable compromise”: Greece calls for “the extension of the ‘Master Financial Assistance Facility Agreement’ ‘, the current aid program that formally also contains the memorandum of understanding, with reforms that so far Athens had refused irrevocably.
A reversal of U Tsipras than election promises, therefore, corroborated by the important duty to perform its obligations to creditors and to reviled monitoring of EU, ECB and IMF? Not at all in the eyes of Berlin: a paper prepared by the technicians about a trap, a “Trojan horse” when in fact it would be technically Athens failed to fulfill commitments. Angela Merkel has many reasons to play hard, first of all the need not to give his side takes wing of his party and the far right anti-euro.
The role of the ‘hawk’ impersonates him Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who sent a spokesman to say ‘nein’, because the letter “aims to a bridge loan without fulfilling the requirements of the program.” Who is right? the Greek letter yes, formally adheres to the ‘Master Agreement’, but considers only legally binding “in its financial and procedural content”. In this way, if it was to bring down the Berlin negotiations tomorrow, Greece could be said to have passed on and still be thrown out of the euro: a responsibility dramatic. But in fact the government Tsipras, told sources close to the executive, considers the MoU “appendage” of the ‘Master Agreement’ and therefore do not endorse, as we read in the press release issued only for the use of the Greek language ‘internal audience.
The Germans ate the leaf. While many of the likely strong allies (such as Finland, Slovakia, the Netherlands, Portugal), do not want to be cornered. So leave the door open to a deal, considering the Greek proposal “a basis for negotiation,” says a government source to Bloomberg. The parties, in short, you are placing ahead of the final duel to get the best negotiating position. Lawyers could argue for months about what the opening Greek approaches really the completion of the program. You probably will negotiate point by point, privatization, labor, structural surplus. With awareness for all that, if agreement will be, will be temporary, with the same nodes destined to reappear in a few months, after the expiration of the extension of the loan: a huge debt (175% of GDP) which would require economic virtues difficult for anyone .
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