“Nothing new on the western front – teasing Sunday night, a important manager abroad, after the victory of the No – Italy is The only Country in the world that has had 65 governments in 71 years, almost one for every year starting from 1945: one more little change”. But if the political risk end up the banks, as happened in 2011 with the crisis of the Berlusconi government, the perspective changes: more on the law of stability , is the stability of the banks and the Mps that Italy and Europe at risk of Caporetto: the rescue of the Mountain, in short, is a new line of the Piave.
If this is the context, the game is on the rescue of Monte dei Paschi di Siena – and, consequently, the solution of the other emergencies more or less notes – not a final draw: if Italy loses the Mount, Europe risks losing a lot more of Italy. As demonstrated by the crisis in Greece, the Eurozone’s future to play on the political solutions, not on the financial ones: “The Ecb will never fail the Greece – said the same Dragons at the apex of the clash between the Commission and the Tsipras – Is a choice that belongs to the policy”. Because the link between banks and States is the great problem of the eurozone, and the government securities portfolio of the banks are the vehicle of contagion of the crisis, the lack of a european guarantee on deposits of savers not only makes unnecessary the banking Union, but even harmful for the countries economically and politically more and more unstable: the asymmetries of economic and financial national unresolved, multiply the distances between countries and social inequalities, accentuate the negative perception of the single currency and of Europe, and lead above all to an asymmetric distribution of the results generated by the interventions of ordinary and extraordinary monetary policy. For many european Countries, Italy in head, the fall of the interest rates of the Ecb at zero reported spreads in the area of security, but the savings on the debt does not mean the safety of savings, which among other things is a principle that is constitutionally guaranteed to the italians. The Bail-in, the “burden-sharing” and, in general, the rules of the directive BRRD on bank failures have already affected severely the confidence of savers and investors on all european banks, now consider the market as a “utility”. But above all, as confirmed by the case-Mps, the real threat to the safety of savings and the stability of the banks and the same eurozone is not the fi nancial speculation, the non-performing loans, or the persistent economic stagnation: to accentuate the problems (and the risk of systemic crises is the perception of a banking system that is hyper-regulated, plaster by rules that are clearly pro-cyclical, administered by a plethora of authority, and controlled in a self-referencing way by an army of nearly 5,000 techno-bureaucrats to which european governments have attributed powers and delegate choices in character blatantly political. For this it is now important that the case-Mps to be dealt with as a political issue even before the financial: Brussels, as the Italian government, must assume their responsibilities, reaffirming the principle that if a banking crisis is a threat to the stability of the entire system, are the social and economic needs that must take precedence over technical ones. This principle applies not only vis-à-vis the supervisory board or of the Ecb, but also for the european political institutions: to den y to Italy the use of State aid to avoid bankruptcy of the Montepaschi or of other banks in a crisis, using the rules in defence of competition, can only generate two results, however, converged: the panic among the Italian investors and a consequent flight of capital that can blow up the entire industrial system and national financial on the one hand and the suicide of political Europe and the euro, on the other. In other words, as well as the clash between the Eu Commission and the Basel Committee on the freezing of the legislative package scheduled for the end of the year, has sparked a strong reaction by governments against the excesses of the regulators, deny now the Italy, the right to save Mps (or other banks) is likely to trigger a chain reaction that would lead to a tear in the mortal of the relations between Rome and Brussels and the future the same survival of the euro and of Europe.
On the case-Mps, and also for the resignation of the U, one can imagine a new scenario: the new summit of the bank is entrusted to the supervision of Marco Morelli – he sold what he could sell and renewed everything that had to (such as the agreement with Axa on the insurance), but to send out the share capital increase of 5 billion, and the maxi-securitization of non-performing loans, serve extraordinary interventions, systemic, and, above all, choices politically courageous. Both for Italy and for Europe. The flexibility on State aid that Europe granted to governments to recapitalise the banks during the crisis of 2011-2014, which is to be used today with Italy, the only Country not to have helped the banks 4 years ago. Article 32 of the directive BRRD allows governments to provide State aid in the event of a systemic risk for the failure of a bank, and it is clear the case-Mps fall into this category. Most of the immigrants, of terrorism, of a balanced budget or the futur e of interest rates, the tightness of the “tour” the european is now hanging on the guarantee of safety of savings of the families, that is, to the estate of the banking system.
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