FINANCIAL MARKETS
Milan , February 5, 2015 – 9:20
The markets try to react to the surprise decision the European Central Bank to no longer accept government bonds of Athens as a form of collateral for loans to banks in the country. Markets rise concerns (GO TO THE PRICE LIST) despite the Finance Ministry in Athens has reassured that the move of the central bank will have no impact on the financial system remains protected thanks to the channels of liquidity at its disposal. The collapse is worse, however, as expected, for the price of Athens, in the opening session, saw the general index Ase down by 9% to 771.4 points, with banking stocks to peak. The spread between Greek government bonds and German ten years has flown over a thousand points, exactly 1,068 points. By mid-morning, however, the loss was at least partially recovered, although still significant: -5.9%. Sales primarily affect Greek banks Piraeus (-15. 23%) and National Bank (-14.62%) after the decision of the ECB not to rifinanziarle. Milano gave 0.64%, Madrid 0.8%, while London and Paris and Frankfurt 0.2% (+ 0.04%) moves in the positive. This morning the European Commission has released the winter estimates on growth in the Eurozone and the whole Union. On Greece stresses in particular that “the uncertainty of the direction of policy is affecting the confidence and can damage the speed of the recovery.” Analysts see the EU, however, the GDP of Greece in rise of 2.5% for 2015 after the 1% of 2014.
The assurances of Athens to markets
The immediate concerns of Athens are twofold: first, to get a political opening, the other to reassure markets. “Greece is not blackmail and does not accept them.” I said this morning, speaking to the private Mega TV, government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis Athens. While on the financial front the greek Ministry of Finance said that the decision of the ECB “will not have a negative impact” on the country’s financial system, which remains “totally protected” through other channels through which will ensure the necessary liquidity. “The liquidity and funding to the banking system – continued Sakellaridis – are insured and there is no reason to be troubled.” According to the spokesman for the move to Frankfurt is “a means of political pressure” against the Eurogroup to decide a debt renegotiation. “We must be willing to discuss, to find common ground to conclud e new agreements’ between Greece and its partners. Athens wants a “transitional arrangement” on hold that there is a real discussion on the debt.
The forecasts of the ECB: inflation to 1.8% only in 2019
In addition to Greece, the markets looked to various macroeconomic data released in the morning. Beginning with the monthly economic bulletin of the ECB, according to which the euro area economy remains oriented “to a moderate expansion ‘and’ short-term outlook for inflation remain weak and it is likely that the rate-on-year calculated on the HICP remains at very low or negative in the coming months. Inflation – continues the bulletin – should gradually increase in the remainder of 2015 and in 2016 as a result of monetary policy measures taken by the ECB, the ongoing recovery and the hypothesis of a gradual increase in oil prices. ”
The results of the Survey of Professional Forecasters ECB indicate average inflation at 0.3% this year, 1.1% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017, mainly due to the downward oil prices. The price trend would be supported, however, by the measures of monetary policy of the Central Bank . Only in 2019 has indicated an inflation rate averaging around 1.8%.
The results of the Survey of Professional Forecasters then show that the predictions of private sector growth in the euro area have been revised downwards by 0.1 to 1.1% for 2015, but remained unchanged at ‘ 1.5% for 2016, adds the Economic Bulletin of the ECB in January, confirming expectations of unemployment “unchanged” and “a gradual recovery taking place in the fourth quarter of 2014.”
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February 5, 2015 | 9:20
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