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This article was published on February 15, 2015 at 10:12.
The last change is the February 15, 2015 at 17:43.
Three dates are printed in the minds of international investors: that tomorrow, when the finance ministers will meet again for the Eurogroup in Brussels, that of 18 February, when the ECB will decide what to do with the line of emergency credit (Ela) destined for Greek banks, and that of Saturday, February 28, the day when the old agreement expires with Troika.
If there were bad news, capital flight from Greek banks in the last two months has reached 19 billion Euros, would resume to gallop on his knees putting the Greek banking system and immediately after the stock market Athens.
The distances between the partners and Greece are still far away, but Athens has promised the US Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew, to “do everything possible” to find an agreement, while Washington has in turn pressure on European allies because it widens the distance negotiating at an already fraught with tension outlook for Europe.
According to the president of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the meetings of the weekend will have to see whether “there is a common ground between the current program and that of the government greek. ” In practice it is discussing to verify the common points and those of disagreement, and then submit them tomorrow examination of Ministers of the Eurogroup.
Athens wants to send home the troika, and negotiate something different from the austerity plan, which SYRIZA wants to leave behind. The renegotiation of the debt, which travels at 315 billion euro, equal to 175% of GDP, for now, the Greeks do not talk anymore.
You have to “respect the change in Greece, and also comply with the European rules “said the conciliatory French finance minister, Michel Sapin, but the road is uphill.
Indeed positions are far apart, even on the language to be used in press. The Greeks want an agreement bridge, but the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has asked to use instead the term ‘extension’ of the old agreement, a term that officials of Athens refuse themselves.
SYRIZA won the early elections of January 25, just asking a break with previous agreements with international lenders and the austerity policies.
Athens proposed to reduce the budget surplus from 3 to 1.5% in 2015 and from 4.5 to 1.5% in 2016, but the other partners fear a drift in the accounts and the return to old vices of a cheerful time of finance who has led the country into the abyss of default.
Then there is the problem of funding for the next two months: the greek government asks the opportunity to raise 8 billion the roof of issuing bonds to three months, now set at € 15 billion, and already sold out. On this point the EU, IMF and ECB have not given the “green light”, indeed the ECB has ceased to accept Greek bonds as collateral.
Athens does not give in and asks that the ECB verses in turn coffers Greek profits of 1.9 billion euro capital gain on the purchase of Greek bonds with SMP in the hot summer of the euro of 2010, but even this is not understood. For now, the ECB has increased to 65 billion credits Ela, the emergency line which will verify the feasibility February 18 in Frankfurt, other date of the obstacle course to save Athens.
The Minister Finance greek Yanis Varoufakis asks to transform bilateral loans and EFSF, ESM today, in bonds linked to GDP growth greek, and dimodificare bonds in the hands of the ECB in perpetual bonds, but even here the distances between the parties are far because the partners noted that deadlines are already very long and very low rates.
Also Athens has asked to “scrap” the 30% of the reforms contained in the Memorandum approved by the previous government Samaras, replacing them with ten new proposals agreed with the OECD. There remain doubts about the actual ability to implement the reforms, long since passed by Parliament by the new government.
There is also talk of a tax measure that would tax the capital denetuti abroad by wealthy Greeks through bilateral agreements with a number of countries concerned and the payment of a portion of the assets as a penalty.
Tsipras also wants to abolish unpopular measures such as Enfia, the tax on real estate, in practice the IMU Greek. The premier in greek inaugural address, confirmed the abolition dell’Enfia, which should be replaced by a sheet on large properties. But meanwhile, this promise has caused a “hole” in the coffers of the State where it was paid a billion less abundant than expected.
The revenue amounted to 3.49 billion euro against the target of 4.54 billion euro. Who will put new funds for this shortfall since according to the Troika in 2015 had already provided a financial gap of 12.5 billion euro? Not to mention the promises of providing free electricity and food vouchers for needy families and the reintroduction of the thirteenth month for minimum pensions, a promise that is worth a billion Euros of additional outputs.
Meanwhile, in the last quarter of 2004, GDP shrank by 0.2% against an expected growth of 0.4 percent. It is the first “tile” internal governance Tsipras.
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