Zero growth for Italy in the fourth quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter. And ‘This is the preliminary estimate of GDP released this morning by Istat. The figure is better than expected which included a contraction of 0.1% q / q and up from the reading of the third quarter (-0.1%). On a trend basis, GDP recorded a -0.3% y / y (-0.4%).
On the whole 2014, the change in GDP was -0.4% (-1.9% in 2013). In the fourth quarter of negative contributions came from the primary sector (agriculture) and secondary (industrial), while there has been a recovery in the tertiary (services). Particularly positive was the contribution of the trade balance, with exports growing. Male hand domestic demand.
“The figures are slightly better than expected. The tentative signs of improvement seen in the second half of 2014 are mainly attributable to the sharp depreciation of the euro against major world currencies, which allowed a recovery in foreign demand (outside the euro zone). ” This commentary by Vincent Longo, market strategist at IG.
“The positive contribution of exports alone, however, are not able to bring to the medium to long term sustainable growth that is missing in our country for years,” noted Longo. “In a context of slowing global growth is necessary to leverage on domestic demand to avoid recording a recovery anonymous. Unfortunately until the unemployment rate will remain at these historically high levels, it will be difficult to expect a recovery in domestic consumption.”
“In the coming quarters we expect a fractional improvement in GDP, while to see growth above 1% should wait only 2016, when the QE will start to produce its effects. In addition to policy moves Monetary reforms are also needed to be able to stimulate demand to the credit of households and businesses, “said Longo.
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