"most of The international banks has created work groups that are considering such as operations will have to be transferred, so as to ensure its commitments with the customers, when to do it and how. Their hands trembled on the key of the transfer. Many banks small have planned to start the procedures by Christmas: other major should start in early 2017". Word of Anthony Browne, chief executive of the British Banking Association, the largest association of lobbysti banking sector in Uk, with members such as Barclays, NatWest and
In an article In his signature on the'the Observer, Jackson warns that the climate between the bankers is bleak. To trouble them is the continuing uncertainty maintenance of passporting rights – literally "the right passport" – that is, the ability of the company to financial services (banks, but also investment funds and insurance companies) to conduct their activities in other european countries, by reducing to a minimum the formality and, above all, without the need to obtain authorization to operate from the single member state. According to the opinions gathered at the annual conference of the banking sector, the hurdle would be political.
"Colleagues of european banks agree on the fact that, in the field of financial services, it is vital to maintain a integrated marketplace, and that it would be self-destructive. I also think the regulatory authorities of the Uk and European Union. If the negotiation was left to them, we would have a quick solution, and rational. But politics is triumphing on the economy and will be politicians to decide".
And the government May does not seem at all to sympathize with the demands of the City. Gone are the days of the government Cameron, when the bankers had in the first minister and the minister of Economy, George Osborne the two interlocutors always listening. From the day after the victory of the “yes”, the financial services have tried earnestly to dialogue with the government, but had to deal with two obstacles: lack of preparedness of the public administration and the hostility of at least two of the ministers deputies to manage the Brexit: David Davis, minister of Brexit, and Liam Fox responsible for the International Trade.
The only contact for open political dialogue, the minister of the Economy Philip Hammond, has rapidly lost ground in the internal balances on the government, and does not appear strong enough to impose his vision of the conservative and moderate. According to various journalistic sources, in recent weeks, the relations would have deteriorated to the point that the representatives of the institutes most important, although participating in the meetings with the government, would have stopped to offer their contribution. In the meantime, the political line of the government May has been defining on lines populist, and strongly anti-elitist.
In his closing speech of the congress of the Tories, last 5 October, the prime minister said: "Today, too many people in positions of power behave as if they had more things in common with the elite international that the common people, their used, the passers-by. But who thinks of being a world citizen is a citizen of no place. Can’t the deep meaning of the word "citizenship". And then, the managers that earn a fortune, but do not care about their employees. To multinational dealing with tax obligations as optional. The director, who pocket huge dividends while knowing that the pensions are going to jump. I have to warn you. You can’t go on."
A declaration of war on cultural, even before economic. To which the markets would have reacted depreciating heavily in the pound. This is the thesis of David Bloom, Global Head of FX Strategy HSBC, interviewed a few days ago from the Financial Times, the newspaper that interprets the mood of the City. A question about the reasons for the collapse of the pound, Bloom replied: "Before we had the bond vigilantes. A collective that punished the western governments, raising performance of bonds when he did not agree with certain political choices. This helped to hold in check the ambitions of tax governments. But the quantitative easing has killed the mechanism. Time to react are the ones that they call "FX vigilantes", the vigilantes of the cu rrency market. To the FX as a whole do not like something, and sell it. This has an impact on the politicians, that will make you reconsider certain decisions.
The sterling has always been a currency that is relatively simple, a cyclical currency, that reacted to events and data, with a value of between 1.55 and 1.65. But now it is a currency policy and structural, the currency of a country with trade deficit and tax among the largest in the world. The Foreign Exchange not like the recent announcements of the government and sold it to you. The currency is, at the moment, the opposition official de facto to the government policies."
A message that does not seem to have had effects on the Theresa May, that on Thursday, in the first round of the meeting with the european institutions in Brussels, appeared to hold on the positions a little conciliatory, so as to provoke the harsh reaction of the counterparts. It is therefore possible that the banks have decided to accelerate their plans to transfer, but there remain many doubts about the feasibility of these floors. Representatives of european cities such as Paris, Frankfurt, Madrid, Amsterdam, Zurich or Dublin they are courting for months, the City, but none seem to be able to offer the same features as the London in terms of language, availability of offices and houses for the staff, infrastructure.
costs a transfer in bulk of the assets and staff would then be very high, especially in a moment in which the profits of the financial sector you must be thinning. According to the calculations of Francesco Guerrera – associate Editor and the Chief Financial Correspondent of the Political.eu – for many banks, leave the London could wipe out the equivalent of a year’s profits on the european market. The prospects, therefore, are not apocalyptic. Nobody expects the finance let London in the block, but the scenarios may be two. The first is that the american banks may decide to cut some steps and move the bulk of the activity in the New York, the second is that other groups may decide to boost their european offices open by reducing business and personal in london. In this case, the personnel would be offered the option to relocate or resign. In both cases, London suffer the loss of tens of thousands of jobs in the financial sector and would compromise its role as the world financial center.
