Migrants, earthquake, reforms and the economic situation. Are the four arguments used by the minister of the Economy Pier Carlo Padoan in a letter sent yesterday evening, in Brussels, in response to requests for clarification on the budget program you are arriving on Tuesday by the commission.
The economy explains the downward revision of the indicators in relation to the agreements of April; the reforms motivate the need of an economic policy a bit more expansive in anticipation of their structural results. The exceptional conditions produced by the earthquake, and migrants to promote, instead, the exclusion from the Pact that would lead below the critical threshold, the two key numbers of the project of the Italian budget, the new debt in 2017, which is expected to fall from 2.3% to 1.9% of Gdp, and the structural balance clean from one-off and the effects of the economic cycle, that would be fine-tuned in from down 1.6% to 1.2%.
The six-page reply in Italian, accompanied by tables and charts on the flow of migrants and on costs incurred, not open to the possibility of tweaking the maneuver but only to justify the choices of the bottom, with a reasoning that is travelling on horseback between accounting rules and political consideration. The line, moreover, is indicated by the same Padoan, yesterday morning. In his speech at the savings day, the minister had stressed “the crisis of Europe’s credibility” in the eyes of the citizens affected by eight years of crisis, with the Eu “at the crossroads” between a revival of growth policies and the risk, otherwise, to remain exposed to the economic shocks and political.
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The dual setting, the technique and policy, it becomes obvious on the theme of migrants, that in the letter to play a leading role. The date of 26 October, says the document sent to the president of the Eu Commission Valdis Dombrovksis and economic Affairs commissioner Pierre Moscovici, have been received in Italy 156.705 migrants, overcoming more than two months from the end of the year the total number reached in 2015. In addition, in the January-march period, the acceleration is recorded in the last few weeks, leaving a glimpse and then the “real risk” that the trend will continue in 2017.
These numbers, more than triple compared to 2013 and higher than those achieved in 2012-13, in full”emergency arab spring”, explain the request of the Italian label it as “exceptional” a fee equal to 0.2% of Gdp, i.e. approximately 3.5 billion instead of 500 million that Europe recognises highlighting only the increases in output between this year and next. But there is more. To grow the weight on Italy, the letter adds, there are “difficulties of the implementation of plans of relocation” expected from Europe since last year. In this context, Italy is to play an “essential role” in ensuring the security of the external borders of the Europe of supporting a “full financial” effort “outstanding in the name of the Union” to fulfill its humanitarian obligations.
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Born in large part from here, a expenditure next year is estimated at 3.8 billion, but they could grow to 4.2 in the worst case scenario in a calculation that does not take account of the additional costs for the social integration of migrants: costs, says Padoan, which other States include in their estimates. For the earthquake, Rome hotel, instead, account 2.8 billion for assistance and reconstruction, in which the frequency of the phenomena adds to the need to ensure the security of the 42 thousand school buildings, and italians, 30% of which are in need of “structural interventions” or even “reconstructions integrals”. The point, however, the game is open, and the confirmation comes directly from Brussels, where the commission spokesman for economic Affairs, explains that the exclusion from the Pact of the costs of the earthquake it is “perfectly possible” if the government notifies the details of the outputs to be considered a one-off.
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