The most immediate effect at the end of the talks “friendly” for Premium pay-tv, decided yesterday by the board of directors of Vivendi , is the slip at Piazza Affari of Mediaset . The title of the group of Cologno Monzese and after you have opened the trading session with a decline of 5.31% to at the moment is losing 4.2%, down on the threshold of 2,7 euro and approaching those 2,5 euros touched last October 13 that represent the minimum of the last two years.
Pesa, as I said, the decision of the French group that makes reference to Vincent Bolloré no longer to be considered “a priority”, the search for an “amicable solution” in the negotiations in progress as of April 8 for the purchase of Premium. A move linked to the fact that the company led by Arnaud de Puyfontaine, while the French side in the last few months looking for “continuously alternative solutions”, the counterparty, or Mediaset started legal proceedings, both in relation to the execution of the binding agreement signed by the parties in the spring, either at the request of seizure of the participation of 3.5%, equal to the own shares in the portfolio of Vivendi (18,34€, -0,68%), which would be the subject of the exchange ratio for the stock with the Serpent (as provided for by the agreement signed in Ap ril, to be precise).
for its part, the network led by Pier Silvio Berlusconi, yesterday evening, he said that “it is from the 25th of July last, the day from Paris came the “official letter of turnabout” between the parties, “there are no more contacts”, and that, in fact, part of Vivendi , “you ceased all approach”. This in spite of the declarations of the end of September of the same de Puyfontaine, who on the sidelines of a Telecom Italia board of directors (Vivendi check the group tlc made with 24.6%) said he was “optimistic” about a solution in quick time of the event for the Premium.
Piazza Affari, at this point, afraid of a long stalemate in the negotiations, because until at least Tuesday, November 8 – the day that was set at the court of Milan the first hearing, for the contradictory, on the request of seizure of the participation of 3.5% of Vivendi – nothing will happen again. Although it must be said that, as reported by MF-Milano Finanza this morning, the next day, that Wednesday, the 9th, will join the board of directors of the company Bolloré to take stock of the situation and assess the possible new counteroffer.
it is clear, then, that the tactical move of Vivendi of yesterday go framed in this perspective. And whether it is, as well as for Mediaset , choices of a political nature and then to find a solution. Why Premium must be saved and the Italian market are interested in marniera relevant to the group the French, not least because of the strategic stake in the Telecom.
Everything in fact revolves around the values of the business plan of the Premium, according to the controlling shareholder, he had to reach the break even in 2018. While Vivendi this goal is “unreachable”, because that can only be done in 2020. But the Alfa counters this by arguing that these data were provided in the binding contract signed and valid.
“We are surprised by the fact that Vivendi continue to stress the point relative to the fact that the business plan of Mediaset Premium is not feasible”, write the analysts of Banca Imi (a recommendation from Hold and the target price to 4 euros) in their morning notes. “In our opinion, this is a problem that would have to be assessed before the signing of the contract of April”. For the broker, “it is now clear that the only way to resolve the dispute between the parties is the legal path in the act”. But it will be a long path, saw that after the hearing on the seizure of the beginning of November, the other the date, on the hearing of the appeal urgent ex article 700 to the enforceability of the contract, is scheduled for march 21, 2017.
“The flow of news brings out as at this stage it looks extremely unlikely to define any potential agreement between Mediaset Vivendi “, write the analysts of Mediobanca, Securities (target price at 4.07 euro and recommendation Outperform). And waiting for an update from a legal point of view, Mediaset will have to find a strategic option alternative to Premium”. But for the broker the chances of an agreement are now reduced to a flicker, even if it is unlikely the group of Cologno decide to close (analysts speak of “turning off”) the pay tv or ridimensionarne the offer.
The latest rumor, reported in recent weeks by the press, made reference to a new offer coming from Paris in which it was expected that Vivendi Mediaset spartissero equally in the control Premium (with dimensions of 44.5% to head) by keeping in the capital, the minority shareholder (11%) Telefonica , then going to find an exclusive agreement with Telecom Italy for the sale of a bouquet of pay tv.
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