the ROME. Dear Valdis, dear Pierre. So begins the letter of response of Italy to the observations that raised Tuesday from Brussels on the budget law approved by Italy. The reference is to Dombrovskis and Moscovici, the guardians of the accounts of the european, respectively the commissioner for the euro and for economic affairs. Not too happy with the excess of the deficit prompted from Rome and covers one-off to manoeuvre. Well, now the minister of the Economy Pier Carlo Padoan responds point-by-point, justifying the deviations from the Italian with the two emergencies of these months and days: earthquakes and migrants. And asking on the fact that Europe is a tolerance on the accounts for 7 billion.
special Charges. “outside of considerations on the economic cycle, the change in the target on the 2017 compared to the stability programme of the 2016 is largely explained by the extraordinary costs related to the risks on immigration and seismic”, it reads in the message, in English, of four folders two graphs, and tables. To this is added that the Italian economy still lives in the cyclical conditions of difficulty, and this suggests “a more gradual adjustment towards the medium-term objective remains the tie structural to 2019″.
Money urgent for schools. “Italy in 2017 will incur substantial expenditure for relief and reconstruction related to the earthquake, for a total of 2.8 billion euros”, writes a Novel. Resources that will also serve to put in safety “42,000 schools, of which about 30% are in need of structural repairs or to be completely rebuilt”. A reality even more evident a few hours after another terrible earthquake that struck central Italy, after that of 24 August. In other words, in the frequency of destructive earthquakes” and “the suffering they cause to the Italian population” to justify the excess of the deficit is not agreed, needed to finance an “additional plan” ad-hoc. The cost for the incentives antisimici to be inserted in the manoeuvre, calculates the minister of the Economy, is estimated at 2 billion. Between public investments on schools, buildings and infrastructure and investment incentive of the private yo u come to a commitment to “close to 0.2% of Gdp, thus more than 3 billion, it said in the letter to the Eu.
extra Resources to the migrants. The costs of rescue operations of migrants, first aid and health care, protection and education for more than 20 thousand unaccompanied minors are estimated to be 3.3 billion euro in 2016 (net of Eu contributions) and in 3.8 billion (0,22% of Gdp) in 2017 in a scenario that is stable. But in the letter of response to the Eu, the government fears that spending may rise by up to 0.24% of Gdp, i.e. 4.2 billion. On the other hand – is the reasoning – “the number of migrants arriving in Italy in 2016 is more than three times that of 2013, and even more up-to 2011-2012, the period following the Arab Spring. In addition, the effort of Italy is started before the other Eu countries, visa is facing unprecedented pressure from 2014 because of the libyan conflict”.
Record of foreign nationals welcomed. For these reasons, “the costs should not be evaluated in one scenario the annual, but relatively, to the situation that Italy would live if it were not for the external border of the Eu”. As of October 26, have already been saved to 156.705 migrants, more than the whole of 2015. And among other things, the Italy – note the government – does not include in the calculation of these outputs, “the additional cost of the social integration of foreigners welcomed. “Allow me to emphasize insists in the Novel – that our estimates are very low when compared with the proposals of other countries”, in their respective operations.
Clothes, and shelter. The ministry of the Economy goes down then in the details to justify the expense of migrants. And attach the charts and tables very detailed, and to show visually the explosive impact of this item on public accounts in the last three years. “Most of the costs are linked to the rescues in the sea, to the identification, to shelter, to clothes, to food, to the operational costs and depreciation of ships and aircraft”. Without forgetting the nature of the country the transit of Italy, which reduces “the economic benefits in the medium-long period by an enlargement of the work force”.
Change counts. You must also change the rules of the counts, suggests Padoan. “There is an urgent need to respond to the concerns regarding the uncertainty on the estimates of the output gap and the coherence of strategies and policies related to”. In other words: we use a different way to measure the potential of the individual countries. Because “if we base the analysis on fiscal policy the Italian on estimates of potential growth alternatives, the budget strategy to 2017 would appear under the light of the well-different.” And you could avoid bacchettate of Brussels.
Investments and referendum. In the text of the Italian response to criticism from the Eu appear, finally, references to the plan of reforms and investments, brought forward from Italy. And it includes the constitutional referendum of December 4, “the impact on the economy can be significant.” These are the structural reforms mentioned are: labour market, public administration, banking and insolvency, competition, criminal code, tax, and merger between Equitalia and revenue Agency.
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