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This article was published on 14 August 2014 at 06:36.
The last change is the 14 August 2014 at 07:59.
The public debt touching a new record in June, surpassing quota 2.1684 trillion, according to the data contained in the Supplement to the Statistical Bulletin of the Bank of Italy. The increase is 1.2 billion compared to May and well-99.06 billion compared to last December (+4.7%). In the first six months of 2013, the increase in debt was 86.9 billion (up 4.3%).
The new step of the debt is reflected in the dynamics of the needs of public administrations (36.2 billion) and the increase in cash and cash equivalents of the Treasury (67.6 billion). The peak could be even worse if they had not intervened restraining factors such as the issuance of securities at a premium, the appreciation of the euro and the effects of the revaluation of Btpi; factors which together contained the increase in debt of 4.8 billion.
yesterday, Treasury sources have indicated that on the rise in the first six months he recorded the transaction in the course of repayment of the debts of Pa but also the choice of “stocking up” taking advantage of the low interest rates, earlier in the year, to cope with “the significant share” of the debt coming due in the second half of 2014 According to the same sources, “the account of availability ‘, with their release, is” high “, but within the year will return to “normal levels of 25 to 30 billion.”
Right on the repayment of old debts of Pa that has inflated demand, it was announced yesterday the launch of a new tranche of $ 3 billion for local authorities, who may make requests within the next 15 September. According to the provisions contained in the document of economics and finance in April, this year, the debt / GDP ratio is expected to reach 134.9% (+ 2.1% compared to the estimate of September 2013, at an altitude 2141400000000). A dynamic hypothesis supported by lower growth (not sure of another recession) that now need to be updated to the downside, and increased demand from 3.7 to 5.3% of GDP, due in part to the worsening of the balance and in part 13 billion of additional debt repayment Pa arranged for this year (in total there are nearly 60 billion that the Prime Minister would like all paid by 21 September). To keep the debt trajectory is also pointed out a privatization plan by 0.7 points of GDP since 2014, but at the moment you can only count on 2 billion coming from the sale of 35% of CDP networks to the Chinese, while now seem nuanced possibilities that we can quote within one year Poste and Enav.
Returning for a moment on the requirements, it should be noted that the values of the first half accounted for 4.3 billion financial support the eurozone countries. Overall, the share of the Italian end of June stood at 59.9 billion (compared to 50.8 in June 2013). In particular, it is 45.6 billion of loans to other EMU countries through the EFSF program or on a bilateral basis and 14.3 billion contribution to the national capital the ESM.
downward slope of the debt / GDP ratio is expected to begin next year, with a decline of 1.6% by the end of 2016 thanks to, among other things, the exhaustion of the plan for repayment of old debts to suppliers and the assumption of a primary surplus which affected 3.3% of GDP in 2015 hypothesis that the latter, along with the macroeconomic framework, must be verified awaiting the Update to the Def in September. It will, among other things, the first document of public finance to be “validated” by the new Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB), established in late April as required by law reinforced the principle of a balanced budget and implementation of European regulations the new economic governance (fiscal compact and two pact). The UPB headed by Giuseppe Pisauro, in a note a few days ago reported that the start-up phases, has announced that they are to be finalized arrangements with the Ministry of Economy for the transmission of all information necessary for the planned certification of the new macroeconomic forecasts. Additional note of Def will also be prepared in connection with the transition to the new European system of national accounts, Sec 2010, which also snaps from September to Istat, and that will result in an update expected to rise by at least 2% of the monetary value of GDP .
Returning to the data of the Bank of Italy remains to be said of tax revenue accounted for in the state budget. Were equal, at the end of June, 42.7 billion, a decrease of 7.7 percent (3.5 billion) compared to the same month of 2013 In the first six months of the year revenue declined by 0.7 % (1.3 billion) of gross inhomogeneity in accounting for some business, without which the reduction was even more pronounced.
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