The credit rating agency reduced from 0.5% to -0.1% forecasts on crescital 2014 and considered a risk to the target deficit / GDP. The bonus of 80 euro will have an impact only in the second half . opposteb forecast by the OECD: “To Italy is emerging a positive phase”
MILAN – Moody’s estimates on the size Italy’s growth. The OECD, however, sees a positive phase. And so if the rating agency puts pressure on the premier Matteo Renzi, the international organization gives breath to the action of the government. According to Moody’s, in 2014 the country will see its gross domestic product is not expected to climb 0.5%, but down 0.1%. And the Recession will weigh on fiscal policy and the political climate. Worse, in a report dedicated to our country after the data on GDP in the second quarter, Moody’s writes that the slow pace of reforms and the gaps in the performance of the budget are likely to increase tensions with its European partners, especially with Germany.
A test of the delay of Italian slowness in the process of reforms, Moody’s also reports an index of the OECD on its “responsiveness to reform.” Italy is last among the peripheral countries of the euro zone, along with Ireland, with an index of 0.6. At the “top” of Greece that borders on the 1.6, nearly triple the peninsula, ahead of Spain which is around 1.5 and Portugal, which is about sull’1,3.
The OECD itself, however, is not of the same opinion. At least read the superindex published today that the situation is being improved and Italy is emerging phase “positive”. According to the international organization, the growth in the Eurozone confirms “a momentum building,”
but if Germany continues the signs of a “loss of momentum” for Italy sets out a phase “positive”. And so the superindex OECD in June, that the Eurozone is stable (-0.04%), and Germany sees a decline of 0.23% on a sequential basis and Italy for an increase of 0.1%.
Returning to estimates by Moody’s, the ratio deficit / GDP 2014 and 2015 is seen at 2.7%, with a significant risk of further upward revisions. As for the debt / GDP ratio, Moody’s estimates to 136.4% this year and 135.8% in 2015 The potential effect of the 80 eur bonus or , reads the paper, being only entered into force in June could have an impact in the second half of the year. The bonus of benefiting low-income employees “is an important measure,” but it entered into force in June has affected only one of the three months of the second quarter, Moody’s noted. “The second quarter data show a weak economy rather uniform. Services, manufacturing and agriculture have given a negative contribution to growth, net exports have slowed, while domestic demand was neutral,” summarizes the agency noted that in “Italy is using fiscal policy to stimulate the economy, a strategy that has not kept the country out of recession.”
Last week was the Institute of Statistics (Istat) in revise their forecasts for the current year, announcing the second quarter of negative GDP and the Italian entrance of the country back into recession. In the three months ended in June, GDP fell by 0.2% compared to the first three months of the year, when the economy had recorded a contraction of 0.1%.
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