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This article was published on 28 January 2015 to 15:56 hours.
The last modified on 28 January 2015 to 16:13 hours.
“The lower oil prices, weaker euro and falling long-term rates’ maturity linked to measures of quantitative easing from the ECB, “along with the more lively world trade,” tend to raise the GDP “by 2.1% this year and another 2.5% next year.” This is what the statement of the Confindustria Research Centre on the Italian economy.
Year 2015 watershed from recession in GDP-employment positive
“For 2015, the Italian economy is increasingly announcing as the watershed year, because it ends the long and deep recession that began in 2008 and return to positive changes in GDP and employment. That probably will prove much higher than expected current, even to the most recent. ” So the Centro Studi Confindustria in rapoporto Congiuntura flash. “This crucial step – continues the study – they should, in very unequal parts, to three factors. First, the very favorable combination of external elements, a true godsend: the collapse of oil prices, devaluation of the euro exchange rate, acceleration of world trade, reduction of interest rates in the long term. ”
Growth in 2015 much higher t han forecast: + 2.1% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016
Adding their effects, estimated by CSC on the basis of conservative assumptions, “you get to a push for Italy 2.1% of GDP in 2015 and an additional 2.5% in 2016″. These expansive impulses remain “substantial even once” made the tare “to their full materialize to take account of the difficulties’ of the context of a serious crisis.” In a recent report, the CSC had estimated that quantitative easing announced by the ECB for Italy would translate into an increase in GDP of 1.8% over two years: 0.8% in 2015 and +1 % in 2016.
Production + 0.3% in January, the first quarter GDP positive
CSC then estimate a 0.3% increase in industrial production in January, after + 0.1% in December. According to the study center Confindustria, the fourth quarter ended better than expected, with a decline of 0.3%. In the first quarter of 2015 the increase of + 0.5% is acquired. “This trend,” it said in Congiuntura flash, “is consistent with a flat GDP at the end of 2014 – which reduces drag in 2015 to -0.1% (from -0.2% estimated in December) – and an increase in first ‘quarter of 2015.
Recruitment postponed to 2015 pending Jobs Act
Employment’ fell in November to 48 thousand units, 65 thousand sommatealle lost to October, the variation in the two months leading to the fall of -0.2% compared to the third quarter. ” A decrease of the stock of people with work that “may reflect the fact that companies have postponed assumptions to 2015, in view of the regulatory changes underway (approval of the Jobs Act, ed) contributions and benefits just introduced.” It ‘as said the Confindustria Study Centre, that “if this is the explanation, then it is expected a further decline in December, followed by a rebound in the first months of 2015″. Corporate expectations on employment, it said in Congiuntura Flash, are improving: the balance of the answers to those above 50 employees for the first three months of 2015 amounted to -8.1 (-8.6 from the quarter Previous and -13.9 a year ago). The unemployment rate reache d a record high in November: 13.4% (+0.1 per month).
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