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The money arrived. Indeed arrive in Italian banks that will at that point so swollen coffers of money that will have to sell them to businesses and citizens must be on favorable terms. But Mario Draghi after winning the game with Germany that would not grant the Quantitative Easing immediately asks the bill to the weaker countries, including Italy. “The governments of the eurozone countries need to redouble their reform efforts to create a genuine economic union,” wrote the president of the ECB in an article that will appear in the German periodical WirtschaftsWoche and which Reuters has anticipated some passages. “By asking the governments, in the context of an economic union, to adopt structural reforms, it gives credibility to their actual ability to reduce debt through growth” Draghi wrote two days after the launch of the program to purchase government bonds. “Each Member State, he added, must be in a position to bene fit from the common market to attract capital and create jobs. For this we need structural reforms that promote competitiveness, dismantle bureaucracy and increase the adjustment capacity of labor markets. ”
However, he pointed out the number one Eurotower, an economic union is based on a common interest: “For this there are important arguments in favor of the joint operation sovereignty in this area, as part of a genuine economic union. Tighter integration continues Draghi, will also allow better sharing of the risk in the private sector. Risk sharing ‘warned, however, the ECB president, “requires first of all a strengthening of the capital markets, particularly the equity markets; for this we have to move forward quickly with the union of the capital markets. ”
Meanwhile, you begin to make the accounts also the effect that monetary expansion decided by Eurotower will have on the Italian economy. The Study Centre of Confindustria, has calculated that the Italian GDP mass of additional liquidity will create a boost of 1.8% in two years, of which + 0.8% in 2015 and a further 1% in 2016.
The size of the quantitative easing program, “is likely to reduce real interest rates on long-term bonds to 109 basis points,” according to the processing of the CSC. Part of this decline “has already been realized by the markets in view of its decision ECB.” In addition, the Qe, “produces a weakening of the effective exchange rate of the euro, that the CSC quantifies 11.4%, also in part already happened. The combined rate-change strengthens economic activity. ”
In fact, said the CSC, the reduction in the yield of ten-year BTPs, the reference rate for the Italian economy, also leads to lower rates paid by businesses on credit transfer. The Study Centre of Confindustria estimates that a decline in the nominal yield of the BTP of 1.1 points lowers the cost of borrowing for companies on new credit of at least 0.4 percentage points in the course of 2015. This reduction, if lasting sufficiently to be extended to the whole stock of loans, results in a lower interest payments for companies amounted to 3.2 billion euro per year. The Qe long awaited Eurozone, detects the CSC, it was necessary to counter deflation, because the stimulus provided to the growth from the previous measures ECB was increasingly inadequate. Long rates, in fact, have declined slightly in real terms, ie removed the price dynamics. And they tend to rise as the latter is reduced.
In the Italian BTP ten net core inflation has remained stable between 2011 and 2013, at very high, and only in 2014 recorded a significant decline: 1.19% in January, from 3.22% at the end of 2013. It is, however, a level still high, if considered in the light of the conditions of stagnation ‘ economy. And when compared with the corresponding value in Germany, where the real rate at Long is back in negative territory in 2014 (-0.64% in January). In the US, the real rate dropped to 0.43%. The CSC estimated that lower rates raise the Italian GDP by 0.2% in 2015 and by a further 0.4% in 2016; the weaker exchange rate of 0.6% in each year. The overall thrust is, therefore, equal to 0.8% in 2015 and 1.0% in 2016. These numbers allow us to look with less pessimism about the future: for the president of ABI Antonio Patuelli QE is “a shoulder to the crisis, “and has been” reached the maximum possible, not only in relation to the real ec onomy but also to the institutional growth of the ECB. “
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