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This article was published March 26, 2015 at 06:37.
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The “powerful external forces” have restarted the Eurozone and Italy. It is the diagnosis that comes from the Study Centre of Confindustria (CSC): “The effects of weaker euro, lower rates and half the price of oil begin to be visible in the indicators,” is written in the first lines of the document published yesterday Congiuntura flash. Some indicators are even a maximum of four years now. The recovery accelerates, then, and it does so gradually that those external pressures increase confidence and affect spending decisions.
But it’s competitive position does not change, and therefore, emphasizes the CSC, these favorable conditions should be an incentive to make reforms.
The context is favorable: the trend of acceleration economy spreads and consolidates through its own distribution both among the nations of the euro area is between the territories and sectors of the national economy, where the share of those who registered an increase in production and sales, also inside.
According to the calculations of the CSC, the GDP of our country, “traveling to a + 0.2% in the first quarter,” an estimate that has been negatively affected by ” stumbling block ‘of industrial production in January (- 0.7%), a figure which, however, could be overturned in February: the forecast is 0.4 percent.
The positive signs are felt on employment has already started to re-start in 2014 and advance “in live” with the economy (the unemployment rate is 12.6 in January). One factor, this, that will help families to break free from the uncertainty caused by the crisis. Financial conditions are much improved due to exchange rates and stock market, beyond the lingering credit squeeze (but there are slight progress). The liquidity of the company, said the CSC, was supported by the payment of arrears of public administration, which has nearly offset the decline in bank loans.
This favorable context, however, does not change the competitive position because of Italy is temporary and is common to all the Eurozone. Indeed, it may highlight the shortcomings of our country if, being better exploited by systems more dynamic, ampliasse the gap in performance with other countries. Also for this reason, then, should be a spur to reform.
It is also seize the positive trend in global demand: in the rest of the world, underlines the CSC, the slowdown in the US is the passenger and will be passed in Spring because it is more related to weather and strikes in the ports that the revaluation of the dollar. Instead lasting, because programmatic, the slowdown in China, which still continue to provide the largest contribution to global growth. India is going well, hurt Brazil, Russia badly.
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