The Italian growth will be higher than expected. The new government forecast contained in Def fluctuate probably between 0.7% and 0.8%, strong effects of QE from the ECB, the decline in oil prices, the weak euro and the effects of the reforms. The confirmation of the acceleration came (for the first time with a number) by the Minister for Reforms, Maria Elena Boschi, who – while reiterating the government’s willingness to remain cautious – indicated in + 0.7% estimate most likely will be inserted in the document of economics and finance. Optimistic forecasts on economic Italian multiply these days. However, the incoming signals are not unique, as shown by the negative data on industrial production and turnover of January and that – also significant in perspective – in orders. While not hiding an underlying optimism, the government has so far maintained a low profile and in all likelihood it will also Def. The document is expected by April 10, but the CDM could be called two or three days before to allow time for any minor adjustments before the official handover to the Parliament. The underlying objective is to avoid the safeguard clauses – from the increase in VAT already this year – included in the Stability Law. The income in 2015 is far from indifferent and reach 16.8 billion. Part of the coverage will come from the spending review, now entrusted, after the experience Cottarelli, in Yoram Gutgeld and management more or less directly to the Palazzo Chigi. The targets set by the operation speak of almost 10 billion in savings over two years (more than 3 in 2015 and more than 6 in 2016), to focus on the cut of the subsidiaries, the reorganization of the pa and the adoption of standard costs. Fresh resources will also come from the voluntary disclosure, by which the government aims to achieve between 5 and 6 billion euro. More leeway may also be granted by the new EU flexibility. The matter is very sensitive and is subject to constant dialogue with Brussels, but it is possible that, after the green got to the postponement of a balanced budget in 2017 and at the gradual return of the debt, Italy can dull even on some other adjustment. The government can focus on structural reforms, some already in the implementation phase, considered essential by the Commission to get more space for action. At the same time, the exit from the recession, however, will no longer allow our country to invoke the “exceptional circumstances” related to the economic cycle that have avoided this year for an EU intervention too hard. A after Easter are meanwhile also sent the decrees of the proxy tax. The lyrics seemed almost ready, but to stir things intervened Angelino Alfano, in front of the audience of Confcommercio meeting in Cernobbio, invoked a higher threshold for the use of cash (rumors circulated in the past talked about a transition from 1,000 to 3,000 euro). However, a move that might sound contradictory to the will of strict anti-avoidance envisaged in decrees.
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