I Should say that this rumors not come to us unexpectedly as we talk about it for months and just recently in the video TRENDS put on alert about what could happen.
what is Certain is that to hear it not as my own assumptions, but as a possibility ventilated from the offices of the ECB itself does come a bit of the chills. Not because I was prescient (there was little to be expected, the program the ECB was known to all), but because this event would VERY much fear to the markets and, in particular, to OUR.
But let’s go with order.
Bloomberg in the afternoon if he comes out with this news.
The European Central Bank will probably gradually wind down the bond purchases before the conclusion of quantitative easing, and may do so in steps of 10 billion euros ($ 11.2 billion) a month, according to the euro-zone central-bank officials.
An informal consensus has built among policy makers in the past month that asset buying will have to be tapered once a decision is taken to end the program, the officials said, asking not to be identified because their deliberations are confidential. They didn’t exclude that QE could still be extended past the current end-date of March 2017 at the full pace of 80 billion euros ($ 90 billion) a month. (BBG)
I scruff once eyes and try to read it again. Nothing to do, it’s just like I figured it out.
Called in a very simple way, is spinning the news that the ECB is ready to taper. Eye do not talk about "exit strategy" as you do not expect any changes in the balance sheet the ECB.
now, When we approach the end of the – QE (march 2017) and the market was waiting for news on this on a hypothetical renewal or extension of the expiration, the ECB also decided to continue with the purchases, but in descending order, 10 billion Euro less each month, coming therefore to a depletion of purchases to October (seven months later).
Needless to tell you that this move would become very important from the strategic point of view. And' the beginning of the end of the stage ultra-expansive ECB. And, due to the "brilliant" results achieved up to now by the QE, it would also be a yield of Dragons because of the poor results. Of course, the continuity of the purchases, even if decreasing, guarantee a good standard of purchases. But don’t forget that speculation always comes very first and take a position anticipating things. So, dear friends, if the thing is confirmed, take note and follow the framework of the market, starting from the bond is changing.
stock? Well, since the tapering is not driven by economic growth, sumptuous, and always with inflation quite limited, the problem will continue to be the banks, which have always in the belly quite a bit of government securities.
in the Meantime, congratulations to the Italian Treasury. In this day and theoretically a "revolutionary" has managed to successfully place its title in 50 years. Certainly in the next few weeks he would have placed at least in the worst conditions.
Purchases ECB: revolution”s coming?
of course, you already got the DENIAL from the ECB.
The european central Bank you may start the gradual withdrawal of the Bond-buying plans before the conclusion of the program of quantitative easing, at the rate of 10 billion per month. Writes the agency Bloomberg, citing officials of the Ecb. But Frankfurt denies the rumors: "The Board of trustees – reads a note – has not discussed these topics." (Source)
it could Not be otherwise. It is certain that if truly the ECB wanted to do the tapering, then the rumors has ruined all the projects of forward guidance that Mario Draghi had in mind. Always that the tapering becomes a reality.
According to me is absolutely early to say IF in march you decide to taper. it is Now known that central banks suffer from the market and adapt accordingly. And then much will depend on economic conditions and financial, not to mention that inflation is nowhere to be seen. You say that the ECB would assume such a crushing defeat without insisting as they did the other central banks? Very difficult according to me. the tapering, then it remains a possible hypothesis, but very difficult, according to me, in march. We can only say that the ideas have a clear road faendo.
STAY TUNED!
Danilo DT
(Click here for more details)
This post is not to be considered as an offer or a solicitation to purchase. Check with your trusted advisor. If you don’t have it or if you do not trust him,please contact me via email ([email protected]).
NB: Careful! Read the disclaimer (for the avoidance of doubt!)
VN:F [1.9.20_1166]
No comments:
Post a Comment