Def, the bank of Italy to the Government: Gdp, 2017 +1% for the “ambitious goal” – The Sun 24 Hours

“Is indispensable to continue with ever greater determination” on the road of the spending review, “if you want to keep the public finances under control without counting only on the level of today’s exceptionally low interest rates, and a collapse of investment, the revitalization is necessary for growth”. To indicate the path to be taken for the recovery of public finances is the deputy director general of the bank of Italy, Luigi Federico Signorini,
heard today in Montecitorio from the commission Budget, the combined house and Senate engaged in the first day of hearings on the update to the Def 2016.

Growth in Gdp, 2017 +1% for the “ambitious goal”
In his speech on the Note of update, that is expected to 2017, a growth of 1%, Signorini has highlighted how, in the current scenario, the programmatic and the dynamics of the product is “significantly greater than that of the framework of the trend”. The goal, in short, “is ambitious”, the more that the forecast “is based on a composition of the manoeuvre on which the Note does not provide detailed information”. “To achieve the result,” he added, Signorini – the next Budget law will have to be defined with great care”. In the light of the experiences of the past, when the Stability law has been a gym for many approximations, the words of Signorini hide a certain pessimism.

Overestimated effect stop increase in the Vat rate on Gdp growth
it does Not help the fact, noted by the same Gentlemen, that “in the evaluations of the government’s failure to increase the Vat would have a positive impact on the growth rate of Gdp amounted to 0.3 percentage points in 2017″. The effect that the bank of Italy considers to be “quite strong with respect to econometric estimates based on the data of the past.” “In the complex warned, Signorini – the measures foreseen for 2017, entailing an increase in net debt of almost half a point” for Gdp and “an increase in the product of a similar amount”. The “multiplier implicit in this prediction is high, data also the delays that normally characterize the response of private spending to the budget measures”.

Law Budget points on public and private investment
investments that are not ready yet are one of the keys painful highlighted by the udizione of Signorini, which calls for the next Budget law the most support to growth by focusing on measures that can favour a rapid recovery of the investment, whether private or public”. For public investment, he added, “it is necessary to ensure not only the allocation of resources, but also principals for the efficient and timely use of them. The recessionary effects of the necessary financial backings will be content if you will be able to identify waste to be eliminated, and to contain the costs of the functioning of the public administration”.

Lower interest payments create space to cut debt
in Addition, the monetary policy “exceptionally expansionary” that benefits the economy “is not a reason not to act, so much so that other economic policies can and should take advantage of the space that it creates.” The lower interest charges help you, explain the bank of Italy, “to start reducing public debt levels without braking the economy: a key issue for a country like Italy, where the weight of public debt inherited from the past is so high”.

Privatisation, the government face clarity about goals
Referring to the chapter of privatisation, Signorini has asked the Government to improve transparency by defining the “strategic choices in a clear, ambitious”, which allow them to “quickly mobilize and for significant amounts of money when the market conditions allow”. An appropriate privatisation strategy, according to the bank of Italy, “not only contributes to reduce the debt: should also pursue the objective of enhancing the efficiency, in a framework of appropriate rules and controls.” “The reduction of the debt burden on the economy – has insisito the deputy director of National way – remains a strategic objective”.

Istat: forecast Final 2016 consistent with the quarterly accounts
To the Istat, in the public finance projections for the year 2016 that are contained in the update Note of the Def “appear to be consistent with the data on the quarterly accounts of Gdp and of general government disclosed today.” This was underlined by the president of Istat, Giorgio Alleva, in the course of a hearing in front of the commissions financial statements the combined house and Senate. “In the middle of the year, in fact – has detected Breeds – the change in acquired of Gdp at current prices (net of seasonality and calendar effects) is next at 1.7%, the primary surplus has improved by three tenths of a percent compared to the same period of 2015 (to 1.7%) and the ratio between deficit and Gdp of 0.7 percentage points, to about 2.3% of Gdp”.

Court of auditors: “Potential vulnerabilities, risks, and the downside for growth”
After Istat, the commissions have heard the opinion of the Court of auditors, which is in line partially with the findings from the bank of Italy has highlighted in particular the “potential fragility” of the economic framework outlined by the Final of 2016, which could result in a “downside risk” to the prospects of growth set out in the update Note of the Def. As already the Bank of Italy, the magistrates, accountants are asking the government to focus on investment. “The resources freed up by a more gradual process of convergence towards the balance of the budget” – has made it clear the new president of the Court, Arturo Martucci of Scarfizzi – should be allocated for “interventions that can affect the growth potential of the country”.

Pessimism on the roof: it will be “a year challenging,”
In his speech, the president of the Court of auditors has also made a pessimistic forecast on the “evaluation of the adequacy and feasibility of the covers”, that will be “an exercise in challenging” in the light of the “margin close” posed by the general economic framework “that countries that already have a profile reduction, significant expense, and by the respect of european standards”. To center the shell without negative consequences for the accounts you will then need to activate a “process of adjustment of the supply of public services” can enable, with the aid of the market, “an adequate volume of investment.”

Chamber update Note in the Classroom on the 11th of October
the order of The work of the committees to the Budget plan today, in addition to the hearing of representatives of the Bank of Italy, also the intervention of representatives of Istat and of the Court of auditors. At the end of the afternoon will be heard the chairman of the parliamentary Office of the budget, Giuseppe Pisauro. Tomorrow at 12 the Commissions themselves will carry out the hearing of the minister of Economy Pier Carlo Padoan. On the basis of decisions adopted by the last Conference of the leaders of the update note of the Def 2016 will be discussed in plenary in the Chamber Tuesday, 11 October, with voting from 15 hours. The Senate will discuss the day after. On 20 October, in Montecitorio, move, instead, the first steps of the session and the budget 2017.

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