WASHINGTON Mario Draghi warns eurozone governments: the “Quantitative easing”, the purchase of securities, “will continue until march 2107 and beyond if it is necessary, but it is evident that it may not last forever”. Reasoning on the figures provided yesterday by the president of the european central Bank you can imagine that the line “accommodating” will last until the end of 2018 or beginning of 2019. Draghi explained that the target of inflation “close to, 2%”, assigned to the statute of the european central Bank, could be achieved precisely within a year and a half, with a step of 1.2% in 2017, and 1.6% in the course of 2018.
Behind these figures there is a very clear message to the chancelleries of europe. Once you have reached the goal of inflation close to 2%”, the Ecb could reverse the gear, exactly as it has been done by the Federal Reserve in the United States. This means: depletion or attenuation of the “Quantitative easing”, or a rise in interest rates. In each case, the screen that so far has protected the euro area could be tapered in a relatively short time. And then? Response to Dragons: “The growth continues at a moderate speed, but can only be sustained by monetary policy: european governments must speed up the plan of structural reforms and measures of fiscal policy”.
The conditions to act are still favourable. The liquidity is placed in financial market from Frankfurt, says Draghi, has not altered the balance: “we do Not have traces of bubbles, apart from any local phenomenon of rising prices in the real estate sector of the large cities”.
On the banking system, even the president of the Ecb, are downloaded to the consequences of the economic crisis: the suffering and, in general, poor profitability. On this point, shortly before, had intervened with the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, arguing that as regards Italy, the “banks that have serious problems you can count on the fingers of one hand”. In our Country, says Visco, “there is no systematic risk of the credit. 60% of the schools pass the tests on assets with ease, the 35% is at the center of our attention. Overall, only 10% is considered to be in difficulty”. The governor also defended the re-launch of Monte dei Paschi di Siena: “it Is rightly ambitious.”
Draghi, Visco, and then the minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, have agreed on one point: the discussion of the Fund were dominated by a feeling linked to the political uncertainty and setbacks “in international trade”. The dragons added another notation interesting, referring to the discipline imposed by the Stability pact of the euro zone: “it Is important that the rules are transparent and are adhered to by governments. The public loses confidence in the policy when it sees that are not honoured the commitments”. In Berlin, they will think that is a reference to Countries such as Italy that are asking for more flexibility in public accounts. In Rome, however, that such rules allow for download on the deficit expenditure incurred for the reception of refugees and for the earthquake. The minister of Economy Padoan yesterday I spoke with the Commissioner for economic affairs , Pierre Moscovici. In the meantime, has rejected the remarks of the parliamentary Office Budget, which had put in doubt the forecast of an increase of Gdp equal to 1% for 2017. “I don’t change idea, on the contrary I confirm and Tuesday in Parliament, I will provide other evidence in support of our position”.
8 October 2016 (change the 8 October 2016 | 22:28)
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