“global growth remains weak, although there were no particular signs of slowing in the last quarter”. While in Italy, after +0.8% in 2015, in 2016, the Italian gdp will rise by 0.8%, and in 2017, 0.9%, 0.1 percentage points less compared to the estimates of July. This is underlined by the international monetary Fund in World Economic Outlook, confirming the estimates of global Gdp (at 3.1% this year and 3.4% in 2017), last July, in the aftermath of Brexit, had been cut off of 0.1% for both years. But these projections are anchored to the bottom”, warns the Imf, indicating “slight worsening” of the estimates for the advanced economies in the face of outlook is more optimistic for the rest of the world. “The advanced economies will grow by only 1.6% in 2016 – the report says – less than the 2.1% recorded last year and the decline compared to 1.8% expected in July).
Italy
The Imf lima estimates of growth for Italy. After +0.8% in 2015, in 2016, the Italian gdp will rise by 0.8%, and in 2017 0.9%, respectively, 0.1 percentage points less compared to the estimates in July and 0.2 percentage points compared to April. In the note, update the Def-the government has set a gdp growth of 0.8% in 2016 and 1.0% in 2017. According to the Institute of Washington, the deficit, the Italian will drop to 2.5% in 2016 from 2.6% in 2015, and then decrease further to 2.2% in 2017. This was stated by the Imf, which in April had predicted a deficit to 2.7% in 2016 and 1.6% in 2017. In the update note of the Def the government expects a deficit to be 2.4% in 2016 and 2.0% in 2017. Also the unemployment in Italy cala. In 2016, the rate will amount to 11.5% from 11.9% in 2015. In 2017 will drop to 11.2%.
Europe
The Gdp of the eurozone is expected to increase by 1.7% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017. This was stated by the international monetary Fund in its World Economic Outlook. The Imf has revised upwards the forecast of the euro area by 0.1 percentage points for both years, than estimated in July. In Europe, nevertheless, stresses the report, there is still “uncertainty” related to the impact of Brexit. Among the major Countries of the eurozone, the Imf sees the Gdp of Germany grew by 1.7% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017, equal to a respective adjustment to a rise of 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, and growth in France, 1.3% in both this year to next, with a cut of 0.2 points for the year 2016 and an increase of 0.1 percentage points for 2017. Are still traveling at a pace higher than the Gdp of Spain, estimated at +3.1% in 2016 and +2.2% in 2017, with revisions upward in the respective 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points.
Japan and Emerging markets
In Japan, there is expected a modest growth rate of 0.5% in 2016 and 0.6% in 2017. By contrast, “in the emerging and developing countries, growth will accelerate for the first time in 6 years: 4.2%, a little more than 4.1% indicated in the forecast of July – says the Imf – and for the next year provides for an expansion of the emerging economies of 4.6%”. The chinese Gdp is estimated to climb to 6.6% this year and 6.2% in 2017, compared to 6.9% in 2015. Continues to march in the India, with a Gdp expected to increase to 7.6% this year and next. Slows instead the economic activity in Latin America, with several Countries in recession, while the middle East weigh on conflict, terrorism and the decline in the price of oil.
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