The maneuver that will come Saturday on the table of the Council of ministers at the time reaches 24.5 billion and is based on three pillars: the state announced the block of the safeguard clauses, which alone is worth 15.1 billion, the package on investment and competitiveness that weighs 4.2 billion, the social measures and those on pensions, fight against poverty and the contract of the government for 3.1 billion. The package will add 2 billion, the effect of the measures already adopted by the last Stability law. To cover all of this, the Government has, first of all, about 8.5 billion of new tax revenue: more than 5.8 billion will be “permanent” and will come mainly from the fight against Vat evasion and a hold on the economic growth aid (Ace); the other 2.6 billion are one shot and are expected by the replication of the voluntary disclosure, by the games and the reopening of the assignment facilitated and the revaluation of land and investments. To close accounts is a extradeficit that can reach up to an altitude of 13.3 billion: a part is linked to the decision to go up to 2% in the deficit/Gdp ratio, that is to say four decimal places above the trend at unchanged policies, and the other, equivalent, is the one from "bargain" in Europe.
Toward a compromise on the european Tobin tax
The guide numbers of the Budget law in 2017 were unveiled yesterday evening by the minister of the Economy Pier Carlo Padoan in the audition-bis to the boards the financial statements the combined house and Senate. The new intervention of the owner of the Economy is born from the need to respond to the objections of the Office of the parliamentary budget (see also the other article in the page). But, as anticipated in recent days, the Government has decided to press the point, confirming that according to his calculations, the growth of 1% is reached with a deficit/Gdp to 2 percent. The one that separates the numbers from the government from those of Upb, according to Padoan, is “a waste of content, which seems to us not meaningful in statistical terms in the light of different considerations”.
The “considerations” carried out by the minister result in the numbers of the measures and their effect on growth calculated Via XX Settembre. The main task for achieving the budget, growth of the additional four decimal points of Gdp expected by the Government is entrusted to the block of the increase in Vat, which should only produce 0.3% of the product. This, according to Padoan, an estimate “conservative in the light of the experiences of the past and the well-founded assumption that the expectations left the non-implementation of the Vat increase”. Translated, this means that the stop rates should help fuel consumption, and therefore growth. The measures are “pro-Gdp” in the inbox with the manoeuvre, however, are also pointing to the recovery of investment in infrastructure, building of schools and interventions for seismic (+0.2% of Gdp according to the Government) and to the competitiveness of enterprises through the package “Industry 4.0″ (+0,1%). Also the measures on welfare, social security, and state, finally, are called to provide a decimal.
In the account entering, however, the effects of "recessionary" in the spending review, although limited in accordance with the table a little more than 2.6 billion (0.2 percentage points of Gdp) and new tax revenue (by 0.1%). From this give-have you come to the official target of the growth of a point.
so far the figures that have been defined so far, and which have been sent in recent days to the Office of the parliamentary budget. From here to Saturday, when the Government will adopt the Budget law, it can still change something. “The composition of the maneuver, and then some of its effects – says the owner of the Economy – are still subject to change”.
The data that is certain, however, is that the strategy of the Government also goes to the share of the deficit of additional, up to 0.4%, that Italy has the intention to ask in Europe to face the expenses related to the earthquake of August, and the phenomenon of migrants. To authorize this european match of the Palazzo Chigi will be the resolution attached to the update note of the Def that today will be the vote in the Parliament. Earthquake and immigration, reiterated yesterday Padoan, “are exceptional circumstances that require extraordinary interventions”.
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