Improves competitiveness and business confidence. The employment advances at a pace higher than those of the Gdp and the number of employees seems to return to the levels pre-crisis. It is the picture drawn by the Bank of Italy economic Bulletin a quarterly published today . Second is the National the best recipe to recover the growth and development is investment.
“The magnitude of the effect” on Gdp in 2017 of the maneuver in arrrivo “will depend on – writing – the nature and mode of the interventions that the Government intends to achieve”. – Support seems to be growing, according to the Bank of Italy”, it is useful to focus on measures to encourage private and public investment, by ensuring for the timely use of resources; the cover should be sought, especially in the interventions of the containment of the operating expenditure of the administration”.
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Investing to support the recovery
In Italy serves “a recovery more robust investment”, the lever will be decisive for the strengthening of the cyclical recovery and to give an additional contribution, estimated at over 0.5%, the potential gdp. To do so serves a well-defined policy action. The Bank of Italy, calls on the Government to pursue reforms while continuing “to attack the obstacles to investment, specific of our Country. Via the National lists, time delays of justice, those for the issue of a licence and the start of a productive activity, all the brakes for the propensity to invest abroad; the bureaucratic burden on businesses. Among the obstacles there are the more the cost and the supply of credit: by mid-2013, “it is no longer a constraint but have taken to support the”io” share class.
The Bulletin acknowledges that “the recent reforms have affected a large part of the economic and social structure of the Country, have led to the reduction of six percentage points is the distance of Italy from the efficient frontier represented by the best international practices”. The ranking reference is the report Doing Business of the World Bank. “A recovery more robust investment appears necessary, in addition to strengthen the cyclical recovery in the course, also to raise potential Gdp growth, currently estimated at less than 1%,” they write .
Manoeuvre from 23-24 billion per rush
Number of workers to the levels pre-crisis
“The increase in employment between April and June – explain to the via Nazionale, has affected both the autonomous and the dependencies (1.2 and 0.7, respectively). This last, according to data from the labour force Survey, it is reported on the maximum level recorded in the period prior to the crisis of 2008.
As employment is rising at a pace higher than those of the gross domestic product, also reflecting the effects of the measures taken by the Government on the subject of contributions and reform of the labour market”. In the economic bulletin it is stated that “in the second quarter, employment was higher by 1.8 percent compared to a year earlier. The unemployment rate fell to 11.5 percent (from a peak of 12.8 recorded at the end of 2014) and youth unemployment has fallen further”.
“Via Equitalia, 10 thousand recruitment in the Pa”
the bank of Italy, improves quality and credit, slows down the flow of new Npl
the improvement in The outlook of the economy is gradually reflecting on the credit quality of Italian banks”, with a “flow of new bad loans on total loans dropped to the levels seen at the beginning of the global crisis”. This is underlined by the bank of Italy in the Economic Bulletin
the bank of Italy: to improve consumption and income families
Continue the recovery in private consumption, although at a pace more attenuated in the last few months. The Bulletin clarifies that “a further rise in the income available in relation to the most favourable employment conditions, but diminishes the optimism of households about the prospects of the economy”.
The cyclical indicators are consistent with a new, slight expansion of consumer spending in the third quarter. On the basis of the economic indicators most recent, explains the bank of Italy, “in the summer months, the consumption of the families would have continued to grow to a limited extent. Car registrations remained broadly stable compared to the previous quarter (0.2 per cent), after rising by 0.9 in the spring. In July, the latest month for which data are available, retail sales were almost stagnant”.
“In September,” continues the Bulletin – the expectations on the production of the enterprises that provide consumer goods showed a slight decline; on the other hand, the climate of confidence of companies in the retail sector has clearly improved, as a result of more favourable expectations on the future sales”.
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In the first half of the profitability of banks almost halved
The profitability of Italian banks is not taking off, in fact reverse gear is engaged. “In the first half of 2016, the profitability of the five largest groups is decreased compared to the same period of the previous year: the annualized return on share capital and reserves (Roe, roce (return on capital) amounted to 3.7% (from 6.3% in the first six months of 2015),” wrote the economists of via Nazionale.
In particular, Palazzo Koch reports as the result of management have dropped by a fifth while the operating costs are “increased somewhat marked (7.1 percent), due to the extraordinary expenses associated with the incentive plans to the exodus of part of the staff and to the contributions to the deposit guarantee funds and resolution (the net of which costs would remain substantially unchanged). Also, the interest margin and other revenues declined (by 2.1% and 4.5, respectively). The value adjustments on loans grew by 18.7 per cent, to effettodel significant increase in the levels of coverage of impaired exposures on the part of some intermediaries.
Improves competitiveness in third quarter
Improve the competitiveness and confidence of the enterprises. According to the economic Bulletin “competitiveness of price, evaluated on the basis of the producer prices of manufactured goods, would be improved in the third quarter of a little less than half a percentage point on the previous period”. By the end of 2014, the Italian firms would have accumulated a gain of almost two percentage points, benefiting primarily the depreciation of the nominal of the euro. “The recovery is considerably higher than that recorded by the companies in Spanish and German (0.9% in both cases) and slightly lower than that of the French enterprises (2,4), reflecting the different composition of trade between the different markets”.
industrial Production
As to industrial production, “in the second quarter, it fell by 0.2 per cent on the previous period, after the sharp rise observed in the winter months. In July and August, however, marked a significant recovery, even if in part influenced by factors of a statistical nature related to the usual instability of the seasonal component in the summer months; taking into account our estimates for the month of September, in the middle of the third quarter the company would have increased of a little more than half a percentage point. Improves also in September, the climate of business confidence, marking a partial recovery but found, after having declined in the two months previous,” even if “the uncertainty attributable to economic and political factors continues to be an obstacle to the increase of the activity”. Finally, on the front of the business also improve the profitability and self-financing capacity.
real estate Market to the highest since 2011
he Continues, “though still with some uncertainty” the resumption of the cycle of the real estate market. In the spring months, ” explains the Via Nazionale, “the number of
purchase and sale of homes has accelerated to 6.4 percent (5.7), reaching the highest level since the end of 2011″.
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