Luxembourg, 14 October 2014 – The adjustment of the structural deficit in the Stability Law for 2015, that the Council of Ministers will approve tomorrow, it will be 0.1%. This was confirmed by Minister Pier Carlo Padoan in Luxembourg at the end of Ecofin. Italy will maintain the deficit / GDP ratio to below 3% , respecting the EU rules: “We will continue to stand under – the minister said at the end of Ecofin – and we will go forward structural consolidation. ” He explains: “What matters is that we continue to be the target of a balanced, there is only a delay due to the fact that in April, when we took the commitments, the growth forecast was 1.1% higher than Today in 2015, the context has highly deteriorated. “
WALL EU – The law of stability, however, is likely to be in conflict with EU rules and returned to the sender for changes by the Commission in Brussels. E ‘as referring to Reuters EU sources explaining that the Italian draft budget will be judged on the basis of the criterion of a structural adjustment “at least 0.7 % of GDP “. Padoan Ecofin has confirmed that structural adjustment will not exceed 0.1% of GDP. Also according to sources interviewed by the EU Reuters , a gap of 0.5 percentage points between commitments Italian and the Commission’s requests would be evaluated “as a serious violation” of recommendations and could lead to “a return to Rome of the stability law, and possibly opening a procedure for excessive debt against Italy.” A first assessment of the Commission on the stability law is scheduled for November. Padoan moves forward with the reply: “E ‘ a bit’ too early to say that you have to correct a measure that has not been finalized yet.” In any case, Padoan is “confident that our relationship with the Commission is positive, as I have seen here in Luxembourg, we use the flexibility in the rules and have an open dialogue as always.”
CALL RENZI-JUNCKER – no coincidence that the President of the Council Matteo Renzi has heard on the phone the new president of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker
MOODY’S PROMOTES RENZI – The acceleration of efforts on reforms, along with financing costs and a lower primary surplus, “mitigates the impact of the return of the economy into recession over the estate lending Italy” and then “giusitica” a “stable” outlook and a rating of “Baa2″. And ‘what is said in a statement released by Moody’s, with which the agency updates the market but does not change his opinion. In the light of the second quarter, Moody’s expects Italy to a contraction in GDP of 0.3% in 2014 , worse than the 0.2% forecast by the International Monetary Fund. For 2015 is expected to expand by 0.5%, even in this case less than the 0.8% expected by the Fund. The two statements are equivalent to those released last Friday by the rating agency DBRS Canadian.
TEXT FOR THE CDM – According to leaks from government circles, the Stability Law “by 30 billion “should provide for the stabilization of the bonus to 80 euro for income less than 1500 euro per month. For the operation will need 10 billion, of which 3 are already insured by the decree structurally income tax on the bonus. For large families, especially single income, then there should be 500 million that will serve to strengthen the deductions. There should be 6.5 billion to entirely eliminate labor costs from the tax base of IRAP. The measure, early yesterday by Renzi, has won high praise of the president of Confindustria Giorgio Squinzi, which he hailed as “the fulfillment of a dream.” One billion euro will be used to zero for three years, contributions from business for new employees indefinitely.
MINI ASPI AI Co.Co.Co. – “And ‘predictably, in this moment of yes, but we’ll see tomorrow.” So Labour Minister, Giuliano Poletti , who asks if the operation on severance pay, to anticipate payroll, fall already in the law of stability. A possibility exists that says Poletti. Even the Secretary to the presidency Graziano Delrio opens and writes on Facebook: “I would like to avoid short-circuiting about the proposal on severance pay. The government is actually working . During these hours, the proposal is gaining momentum, even acknowledging the reform to the study of stability within the law. ” At least 1.5 billion should be earmarked to finance new social safety nets provided by the Jobs Act, which will extend the range of beneficiaries of unemployment benefit (Aspi) also to co.co.co. A billion would for the regularization of temporary teachers and another to unlock the seniority of the employees of the public security sector. To loosen the stability pact ‘internal municipalities should be allocated one billion, while 500 million should be used to extend for three years the eco-bonus and the bonus for building renovations . The law of stability could then allocate 500 million a year for five years to fund the tax credit for investments in research and development. Between 5 and 6 billion should be used to cover the expenses can not be postponed as the so-called 5 per thousand and international peacekeeping missions.
TFR IN PAY ENVELOPE – “Predictable”, to use the words of the Minister of Labour Giuliano Poletti, that stability is contained in the law also provides that the measure p ossibility for workers to receive severance pay in payroll , this is working out a deal with the banks that could grant loans at subsidized rates to companies whose employees decide to use this option. And interviewed on LA7 by Giovanni Floris, the Minister of Labour rule changes in race to the Jobs Act: “I think there is no reason to change it, because the majority has taken an orientation and voted confidence in the Senate “. Similarly Poletti excludes a new maneuver in April, she snaps the CGIL for his judgment on the law of stability: “To call it recession there does not seem real.”
Publishing Graziano Delrio .
FINDING RESOURCES – About 11.5 billion of the 30 expected to be financed using the lever on the deficit or by exploiting the difference between the deficit trend (2.2%) and programmatic (set by the government at 2.9%). Another 16 billion would come from spending cuts, which will mainly concern the Regions (4 billion) and local authorities (3000000000). More about € 4 billion could come from the close on the expenditure of ministries and about 500 million by cutting the salaries of senior civil servants. Around 2 billion should be obtained from the pruning of the tax expenditure and the rest should be recovered through the one-off non-tax.
OK TO REVIEW TASI – Meanwhile, today the House and Senate have voted for the resolution authorizing a majority of the to return to a balanced budget in 2017 .Previsto, among other things, that the the Jobs Act will be “included among the measures linked to public finance measures,” in which there will be a “review of the laws for municipal property taxes . “
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