The eurozone will not restart: unemployment weighs on consumption – The Republic

The eurozone will not restart: unemployment weighs on consumption – The Republic

MILAN – Taking modest and low inflation. Leave little room for optimism about the end of the year forecasts for the Eurozone published by Istat, Ifo and Insee, the statistical offices of Italy, Germany and France. In the Economic outlook provide the Eurozone GDP up 0.8% in 2014 (+ 0.2% economic situation in the third and fourth quarter), while in the first quarter of 2015 is estimated economic growth of 0.3% and 0.7% trend.

The recovery is expected to be driven by domestic demand (consumption + 0.1% in the third quarter, up 0.2% in the quarter, 0.7 in 2014, 0.3% in the first quarter of 2015 and +0, 9% on year), while private investment is estimated to rise by 0.3% in the third quarter, 0.4% in the quarter, 1.2% in 2014, 0.5% in the first quarter 2015 economic and 0.9% trend.

It should not be better in terms of price dynamics: inflation will reach 0.5% in 2014 and 0.6% in the first quarter of 2015 As industrial production, will rise by 0.9% at year end and 0.7% in the first three months of next year. In the third quarter the output is expected to increase by 0.2% in the third cyclical and that in the fourth quarter of 2014, while in the first quarter of 2015 is expected to increase by 0.3%.

In particular, according to the three institutions, the trend of the GDP will be characterized by asymmetry, driven by growth in Spain and Germany, and will continue the recovery of the labor market, but not enough to result in a significant drop in the unemployment rate, a figure that will affect consumption trends, and thus domestic demand.

The forecasts background see the price of oil stable at $ 97 per barrel and the exchange rate of the dollar / euro around 1:28. The scenario presents estimates of the risks linked to the actual recovery of investment and the rate of household savings. Also weigh a weaker external demand, especially from Asia and Latin America, along with the impact of international tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

Arguments:

economic crisis

Pil

Eurozone

istat

ifo

Insee

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