Italy, industrial production remains at stake Berlin slows and scares European stocks
The estimates of Confindustria: braking even in September. Markets in red
10/10/2014
The industrial production in Italy improves in August but did not take off . Istat reports a rise of 0.3% and an economic decline of 0.7% trend. In particular, the average of the June-August quarter production decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter, while the average for the first eight months fell by 0.1% compared to the same period last year.
The view therefore remains bleak, as evidenced by the estimates of the Centro Studi Confindustria for September provide a 0.2% monthly and 0.6% in the third quarter compared with the previous three months. “The qualitative surveys conducted at manufacturing companies – says the Csc – confirm an overall framework weak and do not suggest significant improvements in the autumn months. The manufacturing PMI in September shows a decrease of the component orders (down to 50.2 from 50.9, minimum 15 months), and this promises to be a dynamic activity essentially flat over the next few months; domestic demand has pushed down while the foreign orders has made a positive contribution, being judged in acceleration compared to August (54.1 to 53.0), due to higher orders from countries outside the EU. ”
In August Istat recorded positive short-term changes to consumer goods (+2.3%), capital goods (+1.6%) and intermediate goods (0.2%), while a marked decrease in the energy sector (-0.3%). The trend increases have occurred in clusters instead of consumer goods (+2.3%) and capital goods (1.7%), while the recoil energy sectors (-2.6%) and intermediate goods (-2.2%).
Meanwhile, in Germany’s economy is jammed. In what might be called a black week in Berlin, the IMF has revised down its growth forecasts from 1.4% bringing the German economy to 1.3% for 2014 and from 1.5% to ’1.2% for 2015 and next week it’s up to the German government cut its estimates for GDP growth in Germany for this year and next. This is revealed by government sources, according to which the growth of the GDP will be 1.25% for both 2014 and for 2015, while currently, the forecasts indicate an increase by 1.8% for 2014 and 2% for 2015 The announcement of the cut of the estimates has been caused a jolt in the bag and half day, Frankfurt, black shirt in Europe, lost 1.9%, after falling by more than 2%.
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