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This article was published on 13 January 2015 to 06:36 hours.
The last modified on 13 January 2015 to 11:34 hours.
SRASBURGO – The European Commission should present here today in Strasbourg two expectations measures which support the revitalization economy in an unfavorable always very fragile, marked by the risk of deflation. In addition to legislative texts with which to create a new European strategic investments, the EU executive will also discuss new budget rules, introducing new forms of flexibility that Italy should welcome.
Still yesterday the question of new budgetary rules have been the subject of discussions between the various services of the European Commission. The goal is to avoid too restrictive economic policies, adapting the Stability and Growth Pact to the difficult economic situation of many countries. The president of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi had said last year that more flexibility on this front was now essential.
According to information gathered in these days, the new guidelines of the Commission will cover three areas: state investment in the calculation of the deficit, in particular with regard to the new European Investment Fund Strategy (known as the ‘ English acronym EFSI); the weight to be given to the economic reforms in assessing the performance of public accounts; and evaluation to do cyclical conditions in deciding the commitment of individual countries in terms of fiscal consolidation.
As for the calculation of the investment, the vice president of the Commission Jirki Katainen said in Brussels: “At Beyond the accounting treatment of Eurostat, the Commission will consider favorably the state contributions to the initial capital dell’EFSI. ” In other words, in the case of excessive deficit caused by the state contribution, this will not result in European procedures. The separation of investment from the deficit should be allowed also for the national share of the projects co-financed by the Union.
The other aspect concerns the assessment of the economic performance in deciding to give the commitment of individual countries in the reduce the deficit. Currently, the rule provides for an annual adjustment of 0.5% of GDP in the medium term to achieve a balanced budget. Brussels has developed a matrix that binds the required adjustment to the amplitude of the output gap. The more the difference between growth potential and real growth is high, the more will be less (or no) a request for adjustment.
This aspect is by no means trivial. The Commission must decide in March if the budgetary adjustment promised by Italy in 2015 – 0,3% of GDP according to the government Renzi, 0.1% of GDP according to the EU executive – is sufficient to meet the Stability Pact and growth. In view of the Italian output gap, estimated at 3.4% in 2015, the hope of the Italian authorities is that the new rule would prevent Community Italy additional efforts fiscal year.
Finally, the third aspect concerns the assessment to be given to economic reforms. Brussels is ready to consider positively when assessing the evolution of the deficit if these measures are particularly significant, have a long-term positive impact on the public budget, and are naturally taken fully. “It’s the most complicated – explained yesterday a diplomat -. It is not easy to develop clear models to quantify the weight to be given to reforms. “
Also today, the European Commission should introduce legislation in view of the birth dell’EFSI, a fund that is expected to generate investments 315 billion euro. It will be interesting to see what kind of government Brussels provides for this new Community instrument. Repeatedly explained that the investment decisions should be made by independent experts, while governments would rather be able to influence decisions. The proposals are then screened for Parliament and Council.
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