Italy, Bank of Italy sees GDP at 0.4% in 2015, down 0.2% inflation – Reuters Italy

Italy, Bank of Italy sees GDP at 0.4% in 2015, down 0.2% inflation – Reuters Italy

       

ROME (Reuters) – After three years of recession, 2015 will be a year of “modest growth” and mild deflation for Italy, in a scenario that continues to be suffering from “high uncertainty”.

       

The Bank of Italy reduced to + 0.4% from + 1.3% in July estimate of GDP for 2015 and sees 2016 at 1.2%, as we read in the New Economic Bulletin .

       

The trend in consumer prices will remain “weak”: the change in the IPCA this year would be negative by 0.2 percentage points, “largely reflecting the sharp decline in oil prices.”

       

The latest official government estimates date from the beginning of October and indicate a programmatic GDP of + 0.6% in 2015 and + 1% in 2016.

       

on economic activity, warns Bank of Italy, may affect the downward “the heightening of tensions in international financial markets, connected with the evolution of the political situation in Greece and the crisis in Russia, and a weakening of the emerging economies. T he risks on inflation affected the possible further decline in expectations. “

       

Italy should have closed the fourth quarter of 2014 with a GDP “marginally” in decline and industrial production “decreased by almost half a percentage point in economic terms.” Average full-year GDP would fall by 0.4 points.

       

The available data are consistent with a net debt close to 3% of GDP, while the ratio of debt to GDP should be increased by about “four percentage points, reaching close to 132%.”

       

As in recent days, the Bank of Italy denies that there is a clear trend to the growth of liabilities accumulated on the European system TARGET2. [ID: nL6N0US3Q8]

       

“On January 15, the deficit amounted to 190 billion of TARGET2, a lower level of 7 billion that recorded at the end of September” and the lowest of 209 billion with which closed 2014. More …