History Article
Close
This article was published on January 6, 2015 at 06:36.
THE TRANSFER OF LIQUIDITY
The purchases have affected
few global asset classes: dollar, gold and government bonds (US, British and Swiss).
Strong decline on Wall Street
Piazza Affari restarts a -4.92 percent: few probably expected in the beginning of the week (and in the second session of the year) such a shock to the Italian Stock Exchange, and even a collapse of the euro to its lowest for nine years against the dollar. Within hours seem to have materialized in fact the worst ghosts that hover on the price lists, not just from yesterday for the truth by the possibility of a Greek exit from the euro to the dangers that lurk behind the collapse of oil (a barrel yesterday of WTI fell below $ 50 for the first time in five years and a half), going through the dreaded deflation in the Eurozone and the difficulties that the ECB meets in addressing the issue in a scenario every day more and more complicated.
What has really triggered the sell-off, which in the late afternoon was close to panic (at least for the equity markets) is always difficult to say. What matters is that little in Europe has been saved: not only were the stock exchanges of Milan and those of Athens (-5.63%) to finish at the bottom, but also indexes Frankfurt (-2.99%), Paris (-3.31%), Madrid (-3.45%) and as well of London (-2%). In general stampede have gone up in smoke over 200 billion euro in terms of capitalization, but unlike what happened in other recent occasions the money withdrawn from the actions is simultaneously flowed on government bonds.
Yesterday it also started to increase yields on ten-year Italian (1.83%), Spain (1.59%) and once as well as those of Germany (0.52%). The places where he found refuge you can instead count on the fingers of one hand: the dollar (which rose in general, and not only against the euro, the highest since March 2006), the US Treasury (whose return to 10 years is slipping towards the 2%, while the thirty-year is around 2.6%), the Swiss and British bond over, not without surprise, to gold (in its second consecutive rise back above $ 1,200 an ounce ).
The situation, as it was called, was already quite tense at the start of the day because of the statements attributed to the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, on the assumption of “Grexit”, the output of the country from the Eurozone back in vogue in the forthcoming election of 25 January. It is in such a context that the euro has sunk to $ 1.1860 for the first time since March 2006, the share which has obviously struggling to recover after the data on German inflation (+ 0.1% per year according to preliminary estimates of December) preceding the general eurozone tomorrow. The expected slowdown in prices (are projected to decrease by 0.1% more on an annual basis in December) could in theory bring further action expansive ECB at its meeting on January 22, hypotheses in turn able to scuttle even more the euro.
The debate around the repurchase of government bonds of the Eurozone (the expected “quantitative easing”) are for the truth in the growth skeptical voices among analysts, also in view of the concomitant Greek crisis. But yesterday Fabio Fois of Barclays Research reiterated that “despite the reluctance of some members of the ECB Council to give an answer in terms of monetary policy to lower inflation tied to energy prices, we believe that the collapse of oil increases the chances action already January 22 “.
Yet another slip of crude oil is ultimately the main factor triggering the storm of yesterday on the Stock Exchange, as the bearish move dell’azionario (which also affected Wall Street) has increased especially in the afternoon and was led by energy stocks (Eni, for example, has lost more than 8% yesterday, Enel 6.5%). But there who is even more pessimistic on the subject, and notes that a barrel launched downhill towards the $ 40 could jeopardize the investment of major oil companies, undermine the finances of emerging exporters and therefore impact on the global economy: an oil cheap is a good signal for growth; a crude oil that sinks can instead become boomerang as it was at the time of the Wall Street crash of 1987, the global recession of 1991, the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2001 and most recently at the time of the credit crisis in 2008. precedents that are certainly not sleep soundly.
© ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
THE SPREAD
differential in yields on government bonds compared to the Bund. In basis points
Permalink
No comments:
Post a Comment