MILAN – On the one hand, the economic growth that is reinforced by the weakening of the euro and the decline in oil prices, the other fiscal discipline that has expanded its meshes allowing large deviations to Member States and exacerbating the imbalances of the accounts already present. The bulletin of the ECB is between positivity for the moment in the economic improvement and an appeal to the decisions taken in Brussels on the budgets of countries, when in the name of flexibility have not been opened proceedings against Italy and other states.
At the beautiful country do not miss a reminder on the discipline of the accounts: for Italy and Belgium “continues to be a significant deviation from the effort required structural framework of the rule of debt”, although the EU has decided not to open an excessive deficit procedure regardless , “as an aggravating factor, the insufficient recovery” in 2014-2015. Words which replicates the Minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, recalling that the rule of debt “is respected, as mentioned also by the EU Commission, even if you make the reforms so decided.” Conversely, told the Luiss in Rome, “the mechanical application of the rules of the debt would be counterproductive.” Brussels also takes a stand: “The Commission is aware of the criticisms of the ECB and will continue to monitor regularly the respect of the rule of debt for Italy and Belgium,” says Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis.
For the ECB, “the severity of the imbalances is increasing in several countries “in a” worrying “: along with the line of the EU Commission, raises” some questions on the application “and” efficacy of the preventive mechanism “provided for by Stability and Growth Pact, that set standards which should lead to the respect of budgetary discipline and parameters EU.
Still, the ECB indicates that “Italy needs further reforms to increase potential output.” For the Eurotower reforms “significant”, and carried all the way to the end, the labor market and liberalization implemented together could lead to a GDP growth of over 10% in the long run.
On the positive side, labor markets in the euro area “should further improve in the short and medium term.” It provides for the ECB in the economic bulletin, pointing out that the employment situation “is improving gradually.” At the level of individual states, in addition to developments in the German labor market, the employment growth was largely driven by improvements in the countries that currently show the highest unemployment rates, such as Spain, Portugal and Greece. Encouraging signs, therefore, also for the beautiful country where actually some signs of reversal seen. For the ECB, despite the results of the investigations on the sector will confirm at low levels, they “still suggest a continued improvement in employment at the turn of 2015″. Even leading indicators “indicate further improvements in the conditions of the labor market.”
The same Eurotower comments the program to purchase securities on the market, the Quantatitive easing , launched by Mario Draghi: “It has already produced a substantial easing of financial conditions overall.” Economists explain that after the announcement of the plan for the purchase of government securities “in the euro area bond rates have fallen further as stock prices increased significantly. The euro exchange rate weakened considerably in the last few months. ” Favorable developments in the financial markets “have determined – writes the ECB – a decrease in funding costs for banks, which have been gradually transferred to the cost of external financing for the private sector.”
On this situation, which leads to “further improvement in economic activity in early 2015″ and to estimate a gradual widening of the growth, weighs the uncertainty of Greece. On spreads, in fact, increased volatility in relation to the uncertainty regarding the possibility for Greece to maintain access to financial assistance. “In any case, the experts of the ECB has raised its growth forecast for the eurozone quest ‘and for the next year of “reflection to the favorable effects of lower oil prices, the weakening of the euro exchange rate and the impact of the recent monetary policy measures”: Analysts have raised the GDP growth in 2015 , bringing it to 1.5% in real terms and 1.9% for 2016. For 2017 provide a Eurozone GDP to + 2.1%.
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