Milan – Hours 12:20. The great fear of the financial markets seem to have passed. Especially about the message of the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi: “We will not surrender, we are ready for anything.” The governor has clearly open to new interventions in March – a further cut in interest rates or an expansion of the Quantitative easing – and thus triggered the rally in European markets, which in the night has spread to Asia. Speaking at the Davos forum, Draghi said that “inflation is too low,” far from the target of the ECB to bring prices close to 2%, and that the Eurotower has “many tools” to change the situation. On the other hand, even the economists who draw up forecasts in the periodic survey of the ECB cut the inflation estimates for 2016 to 0.7%, from the previous 1%, for the drop in oil prices.
The price lists the old continent continue to believe in new ideas as well: Milan takes up the thread of rising Eve and salt 2%. Mps, fresh from a resounding + 43%, no money in start-up and when it comes into bargaining jumped significantly, while Saipem ends in the grip of volatility after the announcement of a capital increase at a significant discount. Well the other EU lists: Paris 3% salt, London 2.1% and Frankfurt 1.8%. Trust for a next intervention from Frankfurt is therefore high, but also supplies the concern of repeating what we saw in December, when the measures announced by Draghi disappointed the markets who had over-powered their expectations.
In the governor’s speech were also traced clear signals of support to Italian banks heavily bought on the stock market: Draghi explained that there is a special light on them, so there will be requests for additional capital. The problem of suffering is to be solved, but there is the awareness that not just a sponge to erase 200 billion of bad debt. Even the prime minister, Matteo Renzi , has returned to invite bankers to exploit this time to solidify the system: “I say to the bankers that it is time to do things quickly and well, to run, take advantage of the market opportunities for consolidation, “he chanted in RTL 102.5 .
The day the markets had already begun in the name of enthusiasm in Asia. The Tokyo Stock Exchange , recovering from weak sessions, closed at 5.88% rally. Significant growth also Hong Kong (+ 2.9%), while they closed more cautiously Shanghai (+ 1.25%), Shenzhen (+ 1.46%), Taiwan (+ 1.2%), Seoul (+ 2.11%) and Sydney ( +1.07%).
The prospect of new stimulus weakens the ‘ € , which is weak but above share $ 1.08: the European currency changed hands at 1,083 dollar and 128 yen. The spread between ten-year BTP and the German Bund narrows just above 100 basis points and the yield of ten-year Italian bonds on the secondary market amounted to 1.53%. Observers of macroeconomic data pin surveys on Eurozone PMI , indices that anticipate the trend of industry through the survey of purchasing managers of companies. The composite index of the area with the single currency slows to 53.5 points, from 54.3 in December, remaining comunuque above the threshold (50 points) that separates expansion from contraction in economic activity. Stands the contraction in Germany, both services and manufacturing sectors, with the composite index to a minimum of three months to 54.5 points. In the UK, retail sales were down 1% monthly in December, below expectations. Christine Lagarde has meanwhile officially announced his candidacy for a second term at the helm of the IMF, despite the vicissitudes of the case for the deal Adidas.
To explain the recovery phase of the market is also ‘trend of oil, which has recently revised the minimum of twelve years. The oil returns above 30 dollars a barrel is that the WTI Brent headed to share $ 31, while only last Wednesday had broken down the threshold of $ 27. Wall Street lived a day of hikes, although last night has closed below the maximum: the Dow Jones added 0.74%, after a passage above 16 thousand points, the S & amp; P 500 has recovered 0.52% and Nasdaq ended unchanged (+ 0.01%). On the agenda are expected the leading indicator of December and sales of existing homes. The momentum of equity markets and energy reduces running to ‘ Gold , which in recent days had returned to assume the role of safe haven: the ingot is down about 0.3% in 1100 , $ 45 an ounce.
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