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The Italian economic and financial situation remains at risk. In the European Commission report on the sustainability of public finances, our country remains under special surveillance with regard to the debt over the long term and with regard to the credit system. For Brussels, the Italian public finances are not likely, however, a particular pressure in the short term. For Italy – says the EU Commission – “on the whole, there seems to be short-term risks of financial stress,” but “the share of bad loans in the banking sector could be a major source of risk of short-term liabilities.” Concerns regarding the gross debt and equity and the refinancing needs. The report does not, however, worries the Ministry of Economy, that the EU Commission “confirms that the Italian public finances have no short-term risks and are by far the most sustainable of all in the long term.” Via XX Settembre stands out as “the heavy public debt makes the country more vulnerable in the event of external shocks. For this, the government has planned the debt down in 2016 for the first time after 8 consecutive years of growth. “
ECONOMY VULNERABLE
debt is expected to reach its peak in 2015 to 133% of GDP, before declining to 130% in 2017. Despite the expected decline, the debt remains the” main source of vulnerability of the Italian economy, “because “limits the country’s ability to respond to economic shocks and leave it exposed to rising interest rates on government bonds, while the ability to increase government investment is limited by the account of the interests, at 4.3% of GDP in 2015 ‘. Possible economic shocks can then endanger the path of debt repayment: for economists of the EU’s 11% chance that the debt of 2020 is higher than that of 2015. The Italian debt is not the only element of “high risk” in the EU. Eleven economies of the Member States that the Commission considers in front of “potential risks to the sustainability of public finances high” in ten years: Belgium, Spain, France, Croatia, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Finland, Ireland and the United Kingdom.
LOANS AND DEFICIT
into debt on the market, the Treasury, despite the high level of previous stock, It does not represent a significant problem. Do not worry even the EU Commission, after considering the durability of the bonds and the breakdown between domestic and foreign creditors. Brussels then reflected on what would be the primary budget surplus to maintain to bring down the debt quickly: “The Italian debt would drop more substantial” than in current forecasts “up to almost 100% of GDP in 2026,” only with a primary surplus “significantly higher” than 1.3 points compared to the forecast of 2.5% for 2017, namely equal ‘to 3.8% of GDP between 2017 and 2026. “
BANKS
As for the banking system, their sufferings are seen as a factor of tension in the short term. The Rome-EU negotiations has been going on for some time and is now in its final stages.
PENSIONS
The European Commission recognizes the great sacrifices asked Italians to secure the social security system. “There seem to be risks to the sustainability” of public finances “in the long run, assuming the full implementation of the pension reforms adopted in the past and provided for the maintenance of the structural primary balance to the level foreseen by the Commission for 2017 (2.5% of GDP ) beyond that year. “
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