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This article was published on 21 January 2016 at 14:02.
The last change is the January 21, 2016 at 22:17.
Mario Draghi sends a double message reassuring markets. The first: the European Central Bank stands ready to take new measures in March to restart inflation crushed by the collapse of oil. The second: the supervisory authority, which is the ECB itself, does not intend to apply for further reinforcement of capital to the banks. It was what investors wanted to hear from the president of the ECB and indeed the market reaction has been very positive since the slippages in recent days.
Let’s start by monetary policy, a subject on which last December, the ECB He had disappointed the expectations of investors, limiting itself to lower the deposit rate and to extend by six months the term of the bond purchase program (Qe). “The risks for the euro area – explained the president of the ECB at the end of the meeting of the Governing Council – have increased in the new year for the uncertainty in emerging countries, volatility in financial markets and geopolitical instability. This creates downward pressure on inflation: will be necessary to review and possibly reconsider our monetary policy stance at our next meeting in early March. ” On March 10, when the staff of the ECB will disseminate new estimates of inflation, which will most likely be revised downward, Mario Draghi might therefore announce new measures, from a further cut in the deposit rate.
Even so, he said, “circumstances have changed with respect to December.” The collapse in oil prices has had an undeniable impact on prices in fact, so much so that Draghi said he expected “inflation low or negative in the coming months.” Today, the ECB has left its main refinancing rate to 0.05%; confirmed at -0.30% rates on overnight deposits, which at the last meeting had been lowered by 10 basis points.
“Today we have not discussed the details of the possible measures – said Draghi – but the ‘orientation of our policy. As I said in a speech in New York, we have the power, the will and determination to act and there are limitations on our ability to take action to bring inflation below but close to our target of 2 percent. ” The opportunity to review the monetary policy in March was approved unanimously by the Council.
Chapter banks. Draghi addressed the issue, especially hot in Italy after heavy declines on the stock exchange of the securities industry, responding to a question of the correspondent of Il Sole 24 Ore, and making it clear right away that in this matter it believes the markets have done “much confusion” . “Italian banks – said – have provisions similar to those of the euro and also have a high level of guarantees and collateral. European banks and Italian supervision ECB will not make requests of new provisions or raising new capital, in addition to those that had already been made in the assessment of this sector made in 2015. Solving the problem of impaired loans it requires years, authorities supervision are well aware. The questionnaire sent by the Regulatory Authority was sent to different banks in the euro, not only Italian. It is a series of questions about how banks are managing impaired loans. The purpose of the questionnaire is to compare national practices to determine what is the best practice. Nothing more”. “The best response to the tensions in the financial markets – said the president of the ECB – is to ensure that the banking sector is strong and I am confident that all the measures taken, both in Europe and in the world, they produced a much stronger field than it was before the crisis. ”
So Draghi failed to reassure the markets, at least for today. Last December, the disappointment of the operators for a package of measures less “heavy” than expected has produced a backlash, especially the euro, but also on the perception of the reliability of the promises of Dragons, which continues to be felt. Today, however, ECB President seems to have convinced everyone. Appointment in March, when the task will be more difficult, however: the ECB will have to try not to disappoint the expectations created again with today’s announcements. A simple cut the deposit rate to -0.40 from -0.30% may not be enough. Some market participants are already beginning to bet on a rise in purchases of government bonds, still currently at 60 billion a month.
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