The Imf lima the forecast for next year to 0.9% – The Sun 24 Hours

The international monetary Fund has revised again downward its growth forecast for Italy, bringing them 0.8% for this year and 0.9% next year, a filing by 0.1% in both cases compared to the scenario of July. The figures are broadly in line with the latest and much-discussed estimates, also revised downwards, submitted by the Government in these days in the update of the Def. In July, the Imf had already cut its forecasts on the Italian economy of 0.1% for both years.

Italy is one of the few Countries to experience a decline in the price of the forecast. Both in 2016, both in 2017, the growth is in the queue between the big Countries of the european Union and to the penultimate place in the G-7, ahead of only Japan. It is also in delay compared to the euro area average, which according to economists of the monetary Fund, will grow by 1.7% this year and 1.5% next.

Answering a question of reporters on the sidelines of the press conference of presentation of the World Economic Outlook, the head of the relationship, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, has avoided to release comments on the constitutional referendum on 4 December next. “The referendum in Italy – he said – is not Brexit, in the sense that it is not a decision made on economic factors. It is a political decision and, as such, is not a type of decision on which the Fund may give opinions”.

as regards the Italian economy, the impetus to growth will come almost exclusively from domestic demand. The consumption should keep, with an expansion of about 1% in both years covered in the forecast, while there will be a higher investment. Negative instead for 2016, the contribution of net exports, and zero in 2017.

The report of the Imf puts the emphasis among other things on the vulnerability of the Italian banking system, the most serious in the eurozone, along with Portugal, although note that there was, finally, in the last year, a slight recovery of the credit, even if lower than the euro area as a whole: the problems of the banks will be analyzed in more detail by the institution of Washington in the Global Financial Stability Report, which will be published today. Among the legacies of the crisis, not only in Italy, the Fund focuses amongst other things on the high debt and non-performing loans in banks ‘ balance sheets.

The fiscal policy in Italy will be slightly expansionary, note the Imf, which provides for the deficit (estimates still do not take against the update of the Def, but are based on the document of April) to 2.5% of gross domestic product in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017. The public debt is to rise still further, from the 132,7% of Gdp last year to reach 133.2% this year and to 133,4% next year.

The Italian unemployment, in the forecasts of the Fund, is likely to remain the highest in the G-7 Countries, albeit down from 11.9% in 2015 to 11.5% in 2016 and 11.2% in 2017.

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