The scrap between the growth of the gdp provided by the government for 2017 (+1%) and the estimates of research institutions on which it rests,Office of the parliamentary budget (Upb) is "content, it seems to us, is not significant also in statistical terms". In any case, the Chigi Palace and the Treasury does not have any intention to change their forecasts. And they shall go forth, presenting in Brussels, belgium, draft budgetary plan numbers not validated by the independent body created precisely to evaluate the macroeconomic impact of the measures of the executive. And' what emerged from the re-hearing of the minister of the Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, back in front of the fees Budget of the house and Senate, at the request of one third of parliamentary members, to provide more information on the update Note to the Document of economy and finance that last Monday is rejected Upb due to an excess of optimism, and made the subject of a number of measurements from Italy and Court of Auditors.
with the Opening of the hearing, the president Francesco Boccia has read a note in which the president of Upb Giuseppe Pisauro reminds us that "on the macro environment, programmatic, there is difference of opinion with the government", which, however, is not obliged to comply but must "explain the reasons for which it considers it to confirm their own evaluations or conform to those of the Office". Pisauro clarifies that "it remains open to the process aimed at the validation, if different, and of the macroeconomic forecasts that will be presented in the draft budgetary plan" that will be sent to Brussels by Monday 17 October.
Confirmed the deficit "out of covenant". With the sword of Damocles of Brussels – But the forecast is stay the same, for which the maneuver will come to the Commission without the stamp of authority. The Note provides for the next year, a growth of the gross domestic product of 1% with an effect of 0.4% is attributed to the manoeuvre that will be launched in the next few days, and a deficit/gdp 2%. To which must be added, however, the 0,4% justified by the "exceptional circumstances" related to the expenses for the reconstruction post earthquake andassistance to migrants that the government has unilaterally decided to consider "out of the pact". Eu allowing, as the european commissioner for economic and monetary Affairs Pierre Moscovici, that on the 6th of October seemed to be open to the requests of the Palazzo Chigi, yesterday he clarified that "Italy must continue to be serious in its efforts to reduce the deficit and we have to stay on the credibility of the rules".
Discard irrelevant between our estimates and panel Upb" – Padoan believes that with regard to the growth "the difference in terms of the gap between scenario planning and trend between the government and the panel Upb", that "it is in fact 0.2 points", is irrelevant. "We’re talking about a difference in the reduced linked-mode model, the margins of statistical error," said the minister, according to which "we were conservative, considering the macroeconomic context", and the fact that "since the publication of the update note of the Def to now has become available quarterly national accounts based on the annual data disseminated on the 23rd of September, as well as the numbers of industrial production for August (+1.7 per cent on the previous month)" that provide "a further support to the forecast of the government". "We were cautious, considering the macroeconomic context", he annotated Padoan.
The growth of additional stems mainly from the stop to the increase in the Vat rate – The minister also detailed the expected impact of the measures that will be included in the Budget law, which according to the government, Italy will grow by 1% versus +0.6% that you would get the "unchanged legislation". The "removal of the Vat increase is expected in January" the safeguard clauses that will be triggered is true for Padoan a +0,3%, "supported by simulations of econometric". "On this item – it has emphasized – we were cautious. We think that a simulation of the counterfactual model of Oxford Economics would be an impact on gdp in 2017 of 0.5, our estimate of 0.3″. The "package competitive" (stimulus to investment private in machinery, equipment, means of transport, intangible assets) is worth a +0.1%, the "package development" (public works and refinancing of the central fund of guarantee and Sabatini, extension of tax incentives for the energy efficiency and seismic retrofit, bonus furniture) 0.2%, the social policy (pensions and families of 0.05% and the expenses for the urgent 0,09%.
Manoeuvre 22.5 billion, spending cuts of the fermi 2.6 – From the tables of the ministry provided to the members of parliament shows that the set of expansionary measures included in the next Budget law is worth 22.5 billion. The new measures adds the "applicable policies" (which are defined as "charges"), equal to 2 billion. It is expected the allocation of 347,2 million in 2017, 4,685 billion in 2018, and 5,407 billion in 2019, for measures of competitiveness, 3,828 billion for the package to development, to 3.15 billion for measures such as minimum pensions and the renewal of public contracts. In the expansionary measures is counted also the stop to the safeguard clauses that would trigger the increase of Vat from 2017. The 18,399 billion euros roofing come from 8,507 billion "extra income", spending cuts for 2.6 billion and 7,250 billion of "additional coverages". Padoan has, however, clarified that "the composition of the maneuver, and then some, its effects are still subject to change as the ddl of the Budget must still be discussed and approved by the Council of ministers".
