The Eurozone stops, German GDP to -0.2% – The Press

The Eurozone stops, German GDP to -0.2% – The Press

 

The Eurozone stops, German GDP to -0.2%

 

 France also at stake: “The more flexibility.” Renzi: “Crisis not only for Italy”

Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel in an archive photo

 
  08/14/2014
 
 

It stops the recovery in the eurozone, with the three largest economies, France and Germany today after Italy back into recession, which pull the hand brake. The numbers on GDP in the second quarter put at risk the scaffolding on which the eurozone was out of the crisis, threatening to delegate to the ECB once again the role of “firefighter” and emphasizing the clash on the rules of the Stability Pact. Germany, often considered to be the economic engine of Europe, has done worse than expected with a 0.2% of GDP: the first negative figure since 2012, sudden braking by 0.8% in the January-March and serious threat to the estimation of a growth close to 2% this year. Freeze also for France, in zero growth year to date. Positive surprises in Portugal, with a 0.6% suggests that, as in Spain, that reforms can make a difference. But not enough to lift the entire Eurozone, which is a worrying trend in braking down from 0.3% at end-2013 to 0.2% in the beginning of 2014, finally to zero in the spring quarter.

Italy in recession (two consecutive quarters in negative), is among the countries most in need. But the European trend is such that the prime minister Matteo Renzi said that “there is a crisis in Italy compared the eurozone,” and that “now the situation has changed, the entire Eurozone is going through a phase of stagnation . ” Weighs the sharp slowdown in Germany after a first quarter extremely positive: a seasonal factor tied to winter unseasonably warm, so much so that economists agree on a recovery in the second half of the year. But it is unlikely that this recovery will be so determined to pull the eurozone: “With the geopolitical tensions that do not cool, it is unlikely that growth will accelerate in the second half of the year,” warns Peter Vanden Houte, an economist at ING. The main risk is the war of the sanctions against Moscow. Another of the slowdown in many emerging countries recipients of exports of Berlin, where many are asking to push public investment. But above all, promises to be a tug of war in Brussels on budget rules if it echoes the French finance minister Michel Sapin, predicting that growth in 2014 France will be halved to 0.5% blasting down the deficit below 4% of GDP, which Paris had committed: therefore the EU, said Sapin, must “adapt the pace of reducing the public deficit to the current economic situation.”

On the contrary, the ECB Mario Draghi in the monthly newsletter that asks once again the respect of the European Stability Pact and its 3% deficit limit but through spending cuts, not more taxes. And he warns, together with the EU: the absence of structural reform of the economy – labor, liberalization, justice, less bureaucracy, competitiveness – is a risk to recovery as much as incandescent geopolitical scenario in Ukraine, Gaza, Syria, Iraq . The pressure of the Dragons has intensified. In Frankfurt you think (in a manner not dissimilar from `contratti’ cherished by German Chancellor Angela Merkel last December) to a European pact that, taking the Stability Pact, governments commitments to structural reforms. Meanwhile, however, the zero growth may take emergency measures, because with prices rising by 0.4% in the Eurozone traveling dangerously close to the risk-deflation. For the ECB, the risks are ‘limited’. But in all probability the Eurotower in September cut its growth estimate of 1% for Eighteen in 2014

The Board Eurotower is ready to act if the scenario changed. “It is time that the ECB will take control of the situation,” urges Richard Barwell, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland. Markets, with the yield of the ten-year bund at record low, below 1%, tell an eurozone at risk for the syndrome in Japan. Draghi has the option of “quantitative easing”, the massive purchase of government bonds. But for the moment, it is the opinion of most economists and experts, is likely to wait to see the effects of the measures launched in June, accelerating on purchases of securitized loans and the maxi-loan banks designed to boost lending to small and medium-sized enterprises.

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ANSA

 08/13/2014

 

lapresse

 08/14/2014

 

lapresse

 08/14/2014

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