After two years, Germany will stop: -0.2% GDP in France to zero growth, “Now the EU loosens constraints”
Back to the specter of recession in Europe. Berlin is the first stop for two years. The ECB: ‘Without reforms recovery at risk. ” For the deflation ready unconventional measures
Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel in an archive photo
08/14/2014
The locomotive slows Germany. For the first time in two years the German GDP records a 0.2% in the second quarter 2014 figure is worse than expected indicating a possible decrease of -0.1%. Growth in the first quarter of 2013 compared to the last was revised from +0.8 to +0.7%. “I would willingly exchange in terms of economic size with Germany,” says the premier hot Renzi visit in the South. It added: “But it is not the percentage of the” zero point “to make a difference, as the climate of resignation in public opinion of those who think, to start by the ruling classes, so that will never change.”
EUROZONE STILL
Those arriving from Berlin are not the only bad news on the front of the recovery. Today Eurostat released the estimates of the Eurozone economy: in 18 countries, growth stops and rises by 0.76% on an annual basis. Analysts’ forecasts were of a quarterly growth of 0.1%. European Union of 28 countries, the GDP grew by 0.2% and 1.2% annual trimesterale. But in addition to the gross domestic product, which is stopped in France, to be frightening is the specter of deflation: after Portugal (-0.7%), Spain also marks a negative inflation (-0.4%). At the European level there is a further decline from 0.5% in June to 0.4% in July.
FRANCE A ZERO GROWTH
The data of GDP in the second quarter, released this morning by Statistics Insee, mark that the French economy is at a standstill for the second consecutive quarter. The figure unchanged from the previous quarter following zero growth already recorded in the first quarter of the year compared to the last quarter of 2013 The French economy stagnates and the government is preparing to revise the estimates for 2014
THE APPEAL OF PARIS IN BRUSSELS
The finance minister Michel Sapin, wrote in the newspaper Le Monde for the current year, the growth forecast will be reduced from 1% to 0.5%. As a consequence Paris will miss the goal of deficit-GDP to 3.8%. The new estimate is a ratio of more than 4%. Sapin invites responses from Europe, the strengthening of the ECB at a budget adaptation of the rules of the economic situation, and greater flexibility with respect to the constraints on public finances.
THE ECB: “STRUCTURAL REFORMS OR SHOOT AT RISK”
Here comes the reply by return of Frankfurt. So says the European Central Bank in its monthly bulletin which cites among the risks is also a “domestic demand lower than expected,” and calls on governments to “structural reforms.” Structural reforms “should be primarily aimed at promoting investment and creating jobs,” and the eurozone countries should “proceed in line with the Stability and Growth Pact without thwarting the progress achieved,” restoring the balance sheets “so to encourage economic expansion, “says the ECB. As for the alarm deflationary (the new estimates put inflation at 0.7% in 2014), the ECB says it is ready to do its part with “unconventional measures”.
GREECE AND SPAIN SHARING
But there is a possible light at the end of the tunnel of a large part of the Eurozone, and is Greece now about to get out of a six-year downturn. Spain, too, with a 0.6% already collected thanks to the reforms adopted by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy decided under pressure from the EU and International Monetary Fund. Greece, always in the second quarter, scored a -0.2%, a figure better than the -0.5% expected and that opens the exit from the worst recession since the war. But Spain back on the alarm-deflation: while prices remain positive in France and Germany and stagnate in Italy, in Spain fell in July by 0.3% on anno.Numeri that are likely to reveal that the recovery has already given the best of themselves.
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