– “The possibility of a drop in the unemployment rate to pre-crisis levels, at around 7%, it seems impossible because it would require the creation of here at 2020 nearly 2 million jobs. ” The notes to the CNEL, simulating different scenarios of employment, in the report on the labor market. “The rate of unemployment ‘expanded’ has reached more than 30% in 2013, without showing signs of a slowdown in the first half of 2014.”
“Advances in the Italian labor market can only be very gradual. ” The system reads the report on the labor market, “could begin to benefit from a less unfavorable economic situation not before the beginning of 2015.” And this would represent, underscores the CNEL, already “the best.”
Purchasing power back a decade – The purchasing power of wages “reported a significant increase in the early stages of the crisis and an equally sharp fall in subsequent years, which has shown the value on the level of the middle of the next decade. ” Looking at the entire “payroll”, the CNEL estimate an overall loss of 6.7% between 2009 and 2013 In practice, it is as if he had gone back almost a decade. It is the combined effect, specifies the CNEL, the trend “transferor of real wages” added to a job in the fall.
In 2014, however, we have seen a marked drop in inflation . And, it always reads the report, “paradoxically, real wages could record this year a positive change.” But for the rest of the prices in retreat are not a panacea for the economy. “Deflation may aggravate the crisis in the most indebted countries because – he said – the European interest rates are now close to zero and, therefore, would correspond to an inflation that reduces the level of interest rates rising in real terms . “
You have to create 2 million jobs -” The trends of the Italian labor market in the medium-term outcomes outlined worrying. ” This analysis of the CNEL, that the increase of about two million jobs in Italy says that would only be possible if they experience a strong discontinuity in the growth of the Italian economy. “All the assumptions made use of demographic scenarios ‘Istat, for which the rate of the population between 15 and 67 years in the next seven years will remain largely stable. Basically disruptive to curb rising unemployment, it would be necessary, however, an increase in employment from 2020 to 582 000 places of work.
One scenario would be intermediate rather one in which the unemployment rate falls to values around 10%. In this case, however, it would be “a goal that would require a considerable effort, because it would involve creation over the next seven years of nearly 1.2 million additional jobs (equivalent to an average annual rate of employment growth of 0.7%).
Unemployment “enlarged” more than 30% – According to the CNEL “the crisis has caused a sharp increase in unemployment not only in the narrow sense, which refers to the jobless who perform actions of active research, but also in the number of underemployed and people who stopped the research because discouraged or because pending the outcome of past research activities. ” And sometimes those who work is not doing much better, if you consider that “the share of low-income workers has increased over the years of the crisis, in 2011, surpassing the 2 million and 640 thousand”, estimated by analyzing the CNEL always dependent employment and explaining that the poverty threshold below which workers are considered “working poor” is equal to 6.9 euro per hour. Looking at the percentage is 11.7% of employed workers. Among the self-employed, however, the share of the poor is equal to 15.9%, for a total of about 756,000 workers. The share of “working poor” in Italian is, however, lower than the EU average of 17%.
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